The Day at a Glance | September 21 2021

The Top

*OECD revises global inflationary estimates upwards and highlights persistent risks to economic growth.

*China Evergrande Group didn’t pay its main lending banks interest payments on Monday.

*More members of the ECB acknowledge that inflation could exceed the central bank`s estimates; they are concerned about the risks.

*Justin Trudeau is chosen as Canada`s Prime Minister for a third consecutive term; but fell short of majority in Parliament.

*WTO rejected China`s appeal over US solar panel tariffs imposed during the Trump administration.

Economic environment

OECD updated its global economic outlook. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) updated its main macroeconomic variable forecasts at a global level and highlighted that the extraordinarily fast recovery has increased inflationary pressures. The organization estimates a 5.7% rate of growth for the global economy in 2021 – and 4.5% for 2022; but the most notable changes were made in its inflationary estimates, which were considerably revised upwards in most countries that it covers. The OECD expects inflation to set at 3.7% in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022 for countries in the G20, with expectations of seeing prices accelerate at 2.1% in 2021 and 1.9% in 2022 in Europe; 3.6% (2021) and 3.1% (2022) in the United States and 5.4% (2021) and 3.8% (2022) in Mexico. The organization called on authorities to continue monitoring inflation since risks of seeing a rise in prices remain in place as pent-up demand could be greater than estimated, and disruptions in productive chains could take longer to pass. It also urged central banks to issue clear statements about monetary normalization to avoid financial instability as it forecasts that inflation will stabilize above average levels seen prior to the pandemic. Regarding growth, it warned that differences in progress with vaccine programs at a global level maintain divergence in economic recovery and that indebtedness levels are high. For Mexico, it forecasts a 6.3% rate of growth in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022.

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