The Day at a Glance | March 5 2021

The Top

· US employment greatly exceeds estimates (379 vs 200k e.).

· OPEC+ decides to leave crude oil production cuts unchanged during April; oil goes over $65 dpb.

· Fixed investment in Mexico falls during December (-2.1% monthly; -12.9% annual); private consumption drops (-) 0.5% (6.5% annual).

· China sets goal of 6% growth in 2021.

· Powell reiterates stance regarding monetary policy and inflation; markets nervous amidst lack of action to contain rise in long term rates.

Economic environment

US employment figures for the month of February exceeded analysts` estimates and showed that the labor market is recovering. Numbers greatly surpassed estimates as 379 thousand jobs were created (vs 200 thousand e.). With this, the rate of unemployment dropped to 6.4%. Most of these jobs were created in the leisure and accommodation industry (355), which is a sign of recovery through the pandemic. More moderate rises were seen in healthcare, social assistance, retail trade and manufacturing. The number of permanently unemployed people remained at 2.2 million above last year`s levels. December`s data was revised downwards (-306 thousand total), while January`s figure, upwards (117 thousand total). This data reinforces the idea of a robust recovery in the US economy, which extends to the labor market – a sector that many considered had started to stagnate. This news increased 10-year Treasury bond returns in 5 base points, above 1.61% – their highest level in the last year; the dollar also increased.