The Day at a Glance | March 31 2023

*The PCE deflator in the US continued its moderation in March, logging its lowest annual increase since September 2021. 

*Personal spending in the US recorded a greater slowdown than expected by the consensus. 

*Inflation in the Eurozone recorded a smaller moderation than expected in March by logging a 6.9% annual figure (vs 7.1%e.), lower than the previously recorded 8.5%. 

*The Eurozone`s unemployment rate also decreased by 0.1pp to 6.6% in February, the lowest figure since October of last year. 

*In Mexico, the unemployment rate fell to at least an 18 year low (2.72%) in February. 

*China`s PMI`s logged mixed figures in March but remained in expansionary territory. The non-manufacturing PMI increased 1.9 points to 58.2 units, the highest figure since May 2011, while the manufacturing PMI fell -0.7 points from last month`s nearly 11-year high to 51.9 points. With this, the composite index increased 0.6 points and set at a historically high 57.0. 

*Turkey finally approved Finland`s accession request to NATO, but Sweden is still being blocked by Turkey. 

Economic environment

The PCE deflator in the US moderated its pace of growth in February by logging a 0.3% monthly figure, lower than January`s 0.6%. With this, on an annual basis, the FED`s preferred inflationary indicator fell to 5.0%, its lowest reading since September 2021. In addition, personal spending also recorded a significant slowdown in the second month of the year, 0.2%, which is lower than the 0.3% expected by the consensus – and the previous 2.0% figure. All in all, these figures would give the FED some breathing room and support the idea that there would be less ground to cover on the rate front.

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