The Day at a Glance | March 30 2022

The Top

*The Kremlin rejects progress in negotiations with Ukraine; the withdrawal of troops close to Kyiv will be partial and there will be no ceasefire.

*Inflation in Spain reached 9.8% annual and became one of the European countries most affected by high energy prices.

*The U.S. private sector created 455 thousand new jobs in the country during March, ADP reports.

*Inflation in Germany surprised to the upside during March (7.3% annual vs 6.3% e.).

*The economic costs of war (slow growth and inflation) will be greater as the conflict extends: Christine Lagarde, ECB.

*Analysts revise China´s growth downwards due to quarantine measures; estimates set below 5.5% for 2022.

*The difference between 2 and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds entered negative territory for the first time since 2019; sign of a possible recession in the next 12 months.

Economic environment

The Kremlin denies progress in negotiations with Ukraine. Russia´s government stated that there hasn’t been any progress in diplomatic negotiations with Ukraine despite the fact that the country´s chief negotiators had stated the contrary yesterday. Persons close to the government assured that the de-escalation talked about yesterday didn’t imply a total withdrawal of troops from Kyiv, or a ceasefire. Confrontations are still occurring around Kyiv and Russian forces bombarded the city of Chernihiv, which is located at the northern part of the country. NATO has expressed its skepticism regarding Russia´s promise to withdraw troops from Kyiv, and U.S. President Joe Biden said he doesn’t trust Russia´s commitment until it withdraws troops, like it promised in Istanbul. It´s possible that the commitment made by Russia yesterday was merely a tactical decision in the conflict, and that Moscow will focus on its occupation of two provinces in the eastern part of Ukraine (the original targets of its military operation, Donetsk and Lugansk) and of a corridor that would directly connect Russia with Crimea. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in China today – his first visit since Russia´s invasion of Ukraine. The West has called on Beijing to influence Russia and end the conflict.

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