The Day at a Glance | January 27 2022

The Top

*Growth in the United States exceeded estimates during the 4Q21 (6.9% annualized vs 5.5%e.).

*FED confirmed that it will start increasing interest rates in March and reaffirmed its commitment to control inflation; money market starts to take into account 5 increases (125bp) in 2022.

*Mexican exports closed 2021 with an 18.5% increase; imports grew 32.1%.

*ECB carried out surveys on the exposure banks have to Russia in light of increasing tensions with Ukraine.

*Strict custom controls in the United Kingdom implemented because of Brexit caused saturation in the Dover port.

Economic environment

Solid growth in the United States. The United States economy grew more than expected during the last quarter of 2021, according to recent growth figures. The country`s Growth Domestic Product logged a 6.9% annualized expansion (5.5% annual; 1.72% quarterly), a considerable rate of acceleration with respect to the 3Q21 (2.3% annualized) and set the 4Q21 as the fastest growing quarter in 2021. The largest contributor to growth came from a recovery in inventories, which accounted for 4.9% percentage points (pp) of the quarter`s total figure, which translated into a 32% annualized expansion in the investment component. Fixed investment, without considering inventories, increased an annualized 1.3%. Consumption also contributed in an important way (2.25pp), with a 3.3% annualized expansion. The data shows a persistent rate of recovery in the consumption of services (4.7% annualized), while the consumption of goods has become more moderate (0.5% annualized, durable goods 1.6%). Investment and government spending receded (-) 2.9% annualized and subtracted growth during the quarter. Net exports had no effect on growth after there was proportional growth in both imports and exports. Even though the figures are positive, the effect inventories had on growth will not be upheld, while consumption showed its strength towards the start of the quarter and weakened in the last few months of 2021. This suggests that growth will continue to be moderate at the start of 2022.