The Day at a Glance | April 3 2023

The Top

*The University of Michigan`s Consumer Sentiment Index logged its first monthly decline in four months, along with a moderation in inflationary expectations.

*The final US Manufacturing PMI was revised downwards for March – 49.2 points (vs 49.3 prev.). 

*On Sunday, Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary cut in oil production along with other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The collective cut will amount to 1.66 million daily barrels, which could keep inflation elevated for a longer period of time. 

*China`s Caixin Manufacturing PMI logged a 50 point figure in March, lower than both the previous reading – 51.6 – and the expected 51.4. 

*The final figure for the Eurozone`s Manufacturing PMI in March logged a slight improvement (from 47.1 points to 47.3); however, it remained in contractionary territory for the ninth consecutive month. 

Economic environment

The Consumer Sentiment Index conducted by the University of Michigan recorded its first decline since November. The index for March set at 62.0 points, down from a 13-month high of 67.0 points logged in February. This decline is partially attributable to the deterioration in the expectations sub-index, which fell to 59.2 points from 64.7 the previous month (a 14 month high level). Meanwhile, the conditions sub-index recorded a 66.3 point figure, down from a previous 70.7 point level. With this, it`s worth pointing out that although the survey gathered data through March 27<sup>th</sup>, after Silicon Valley Bank`s bankruptcy, almost two thirds of the survey`s responses were received prior to the mentioned event. Additionally, it was highlighted that one year inflationary expectations decreased to 3.6% (-0.5pp), which is the lowest reading since April 2021. For its part, expectations for 5 to 10 year inflation remained unchanged at 2.9%.