The Day at a Glance | October 26 2022

*30-year mortgage rates in the US exceeded 7% for the first time since 2001.

*China announced new quarantines in parts of Wuhan and Guangzhou due to new COVID-19 outbreaks.

*Presidential election in Brazil is expected to be a close race on October 30th.

*Moscow warns Washington that it will carry out nuclear tests this week.

*A new budget will be presented in the United Kingdom on November 17th.

*Germany legalizes marihuana for recreational purposes.

Economic environment

Monetary policy effects. 30-year mortgage interest rates in the United States reached 7.16% last week and linked 10 months of consecutive increases. The data, made known by the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday were accompanied by figures on refinancing credit applications, which dropped 1.7% and reached their lowest levels since 1997. Other indicators made known in the last few days reflect a considerable slowdown in the US real-estate sector, one of the most sensitive to interest rate changes. Yesterday, the S&P`s house prices index, CoreLogic Case-Shiller, which considers data from the country`s 20 largest cities, logged its largest monthly decrease (-1.3% Aug.) since the pandemic; while sales of existing homes are at 10-year lows. This morning, new home sales figures will be made known, which are also expected to recede. Demand has started to disappear in the sector as financing for the purchase of homes becomes more costly – something that has already started to impact prices. Nevertheless, the sector is still far from a crisis: home prices during August remain 13% above what was seen during the same month last year, and low home inventories suggest that there could be a floor for prices. However, lower appraisals could gradually slow consumer confidence and decrease spending, which could translate into a more widespread slowdown in the economy. Or at least this is what the FED expects to happen through its efforts to contain inflationary pressures as soon as possible.

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