The Day at a Glance | October 10 2023

*The IMF maintained its 3.0% forecast for global economic growth in 2023, while for 2024, it decreased its estimate to 2.9% (3.0% prev.); for Mexico, the IMF´s forecast was revised for both 2023 and 2024.

*Israel carried out its largest attack on the Gaza Strip in its 75 years of conflict with Palestine this Tuesday.

*Chinese real-estate firm Country Garden warned on Tuesday about its inability to meet its debt obligations, and China is preparing for one of the largest debt restructurings in the country.

*According to the NFIB survey, business confidence in the United States decreased slightly in September due to ongoing concerns about inflation.

Economic environment

The global economy is recovering at a slow pace, with regional divergences and limited room for monetary policies. This morning, the IMF updated its growth estimates, keeping its forecast for 2023 unchanged (3.0% e.). For 2024, the estimate was revised down compared to July´s report – from 3.0% to 2.9%. The IMF noted that the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine has been slow and uneven around the world. Despite the resilience shown at the beginning of the year and progress made in reducing inflation, economic activity is still behind its pre-pandemic track. For advanced economies, estimates point to a slowdown from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% for 2024. This is despite the fact that the United States has positively surprised with larger than initially expected growth. For 2023, the US economy is estimated to grow by 2.1% (1.8% prev.) and for the following year, 1.5% (1.0% prev.). Meanwhile, for China, growth forecasts were revised down after it failed to maintain the momentum seen at the beginning of the year with the reopening of its economy. Therefore, growth for this year is expected to set at 5.0% (5.2% prev.) and decrease to 4.2% (4.5% prev.) in 2024. Lastly, for Mexico, the IMF’s estimates were revised up significantly to 3.2% and 2.1% for 2023 and 2024, respectively.