The Day at a Glance | November 29 2023

*The second estimate for US GDP forecasted even greater growth in the third quarter of the year. 

*The Eurozone´s economic sentiment index increased to 93.8 points in November, marginally higher than the October´s revised 93.5 point figure and the market forecast of 93.7. 

*The US 30-year mortgage interest rate for balances below $726,200 remained lower in the week ending November 24th, standing at 7.37% (-4bp). 

*Additionally, the number of mortgage applications continued to rise for a fourth consecutive week with a 0.3% w/w change. 

*The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s manufacturing activity index dropped to -5 points in November from the previous reading of 3 points, falling below the expected 1 point level. Meanwhile, the services sector index rebounded to 1 point after a sharp decline (to -11) in October. 

*The business activity index for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas logged relative improvement (to -11.6 points), up from October’s -18.2 (a 10-month low). 

*The US Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that its housing price index recorded a 0.6% m/m increase in September, reaching a 414.8 point historical high. 

*Six more hostages are expected to be released by Hamas today. Thus, in the first five days of the truce, Hamas has released 81 hostages, while Israel has freed 180 Palestinians.

Economic environment

The US economy recorded larger growth than what the preliminary estimate for the 3Q23 forecasted.The second estimate forecasts that the annualized quarterly growth rate for US GDP set at 5.2%, higher than the previous estimate of 4.9% and the consensus forecast of 5.0%. The upward revision was driven by non-residential fixed investment, as well as increased government spending at the state and local levels. However, consumer spending was also adjusted – although to the downside – in this second reading. With this, this morning´s revised data confirms that growth in the  3Q23 was the fastest since the 4Q21. Additionally, the personal consumption expenditure price index recorded a 2.8% q/q increase in the 3Q23, reflecting slight acceleration compared to the 2.5% q/q observed in the previous period, but below the 2.9% q/q forecast.