The Day at a Glance | November 15 2023

*US retail sales declined less than expected in October.

*Producer inflation in the US recorded its largest decrease in more than three years.

*In China, retail sales posted a solid 7.6% y/y increase in October, higher than both the 7.0% y/y forecast and the 5.5% y/y figure logged in September. In addition, industrial production increased 4.6% y/y, also higher than the expected 4.5% y/y.

*US mortgage applications accelerated in the week ending November 10th and logged a 2.8% w/w change (2.5% w/w prev.). 

*The Empire State manufacturing index surprised to the upside, rebounding in November with a 9.1 point reading, its highest figure since April of this year. 

Economic environment

Retail sales broke their positive streak in October by logging a -0.1% m/m contraction. After six consecutive months of positive readings, retail sales recorded a -0.1% m/m setback. However, this figure set above the -0.3% m/m forecast. Sales in furniture stores logged the highest monthly contraction (-2.0%), followed by variety stores (-1.7% m/m). Other sectors that recorded a negative monthly performance included vehicle sales (-1.0% m/m); sports, musical instruments, & book sales (-0.8% m/m); and gasoline station sales (-0.3% m/m). It´s worth noting that the change set at 0.1% m/m when excluding car and gasoline sales; this figure compares negatively against both the previous figure of 0.6% m/m, as well as the expected 0.2% m/m. In addition, the producer price index in the US logged a -0.5% m/m change in October, its largest contraction since April 2020. In a disaggregated manner, the price index fell -1.4% m/m /m, due to a -15.3% m/m decrease in gasoline prices; while services prices remained unchanged after six consecutive increases. Lastly, core producer inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, also logged null change (0.0% m/m), from a previous 0.3% m/m. With this, producer inflation recorded an annual 1.3% reading, its slowest change since July of this year.