The Day at a Glance | November 14 2023

*Consumer inflation in the US remained unchanged on a monthly basis in October, and the underlying component showed signs of slowing down. 

*The Eurozone´s economy contracted marginally by -0.1% q/q in the 3Q23, raising expectations of a technical recession by the end of 2023. 

*US Congress is attempting to overcome partisan deadlock to prevent a government shutdown. 

*The International Energy Agency raised its growth forecasts for oil demand for 2023 and 2024. 

*According to the UN, global emissions are expected to decrease by only 2% by 2030.

Economic environment

Consumer inflation in the US, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), decreased to 3.2% y/y in October. The reading set below the market expectation of 3.3% y/y. In its monthly reading, the CPI recorded stagnation at 0.0% (previously 0.4%), although still lower than the estimated 0.1% m/m. In a disaggregate manner, service prices moderated to 0.3% m/m (down by 0.3 percentage points), driven by the housing component (0.3% m/m vs. 0.6% m/m prev.) and still a large change in transportation prices (0.8% m/m vs. 0.7% m/m prev.). On the other hand, the energy sector decreased significantly compared to the previous month (-2.5% m/m versus 1.5% prev.), with gasoline standing out with a -5.0% m/m decrease, down from a previous figure of 2.1% m/m. Thus, excluding the more volatile elements such as energy and food, core inflation logged a 0.2% m/m figure, lower than the estimated and previous figure of 0.3%. With this, the annual reading for core inflation continued to decline for a seventh consecutive month, and reached a two-year low at 4.0%, matching market estimates. It´s important to highlight the fact that the housing sector continued being the primary contributor to underlying inflation as it logged an annual reading of 6.7%.

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