The Day at a Glance | March 4 2022

The Top

*Employment figures in the United States surprised to the upside (678k vs 422k e.).

*Oil is about to close its best week in history; market players fear it may increase to $200dpb if restrictions on Russian exports are implemented.

*Fixed investment increased 1.2% in Mexico during December (8.1% annual); private consumption increased 1.5% in the same month (7.4% annual).

*Russia takes control of Ukraine`s largest nuclear plant; it avoided a nuclear disaster during confrontations.

*The Chinese National People`s Congress will start its annual parliamentary session on Saturday, in which it will define economic and political priorities for 2022.

*The increase in oil prices will cause inflation to exceed 2% this year: Central Bank of Japan.

Economic environment

The United States labor market continues its recovery. Employment figures increased in a surprising manner for a second consecutive month by confirming the creation of 678 thousand jobs during February (vs 422 thousand e.). With this, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and the number of unemployed people approached its pre-pandemic levels by setting at 6.3 million (vs 5.7 million in February 2020). The participation rate practically remained unchanged and only increased 0.1% to 62.3%. The creation of jobs in February was widespread, with most of them being logged in food and beverage services (124 thousand) and professional services (98 thousand). Previous months` figures were also revised upwards (December +78 thousand to 588 thousand total; January +14 thousand to 481 thousand total), which confirms a stronger recovery in recent months. Surprising figures were also seen in wages, however, this is because wages didn`t change on a monthly basis and their annual rate of growth has become more moderate (5.1% annual vs 5.8%e.). Even though February`s data doesn’t confirm that the increase in wages will come to a stop, it`s a positive sign regarding inflation`s structural dynamic. February`s data reaffirms that the U.S. economy has reached full employment levels and the FED can focus exclusively on its goal to stabilize prices.