The Day at a Glance | June 28 2023

The Top

*Consumer confidence in the US exceeded market expectations during June and reached a 17-month high. 

*New home sales in the US logged strong acceleration during May, increasing from 3.5% m/m in the previous month to 12.2% m/m – equivalent to 763,000 units. 

*According to the United States Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications increased 3.0% during the week ending on June 23rd. 

*Retail inventories in the United States, excluding automobiles, logged no monthly variation (0.0%) in May after decreasing -0.3% in April. Wholesale inventories, on the other hand, recorded a -0.1% monthly setback. 

*On June 30th, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP for its initials in Spanish) will carry out a securities swap auction through the Central Bank of Mexico), where bidders will deliver Bondes F with maturities between 97 and 517 days in exchange for Bondes F with maturities between 552 days and 3,401 days. 

Economic environment

The US consumer confidence indicator, conducted by the Conference Board, recorded a 7.2 point increase in June and set at 109.7 points, its highest level since January 2022. This reading easily surpassed the consensus expectation of 104.0 points and was boosted by an improved perception of current business conditions. 23.7% of consumers pointed out that conditions were “good”, compared to 19.7% who gave the same response in May. Regarding the labor market, 46.8% of those surveyed indicated that jobs were “plentiful”, up from 43.3% in the previous month. As for the expectations index, it remained below the 80 point threshold, a level associated with a recession occurring within the next year. However, its 7.8 point increase (to 79.3 points), just below said threshold, logged significant improvement. In this regard, the perceived probability of a recession occurring in the next 12 months, that is, the percentage of participants who responded “somewhat” to “very likely”, decreased from 73.2% in May to 69.3%.