The Day at a Glance | Jun 30 2022

The Top

*China maintains economic recovery through June.

*The CCE and the private sector are preparing a third infrastructure investment package (15 projects) to back growth in Mexico.

*Inflation in the United States stabilized in May (6.3% annual), according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator.

*US GDP was revised downwards for the 1Q22 (-1.6% annualized): A strong decrease in consumption (1.8% vs 3.1%prev.) triggers doubts regarding the economy´s strength.

*Unemployment in Europe dropped to 6.6% in May.

*Unemployment claims in the United States increased to 230 last week.

Economic environment

Improvement in China´s economy. China´s official PMI´s pointed towards continued growth in the country´s economic activity through June – after the end of COVID-19 confinement measures. Growth during the month was mainly focused in the services sector and construction (54.7 vs 50.5e.), which logged figures that widely exceeded estimates as restrictions were lifted, businesses reopened, factories resumed productivity, and ports increased operations. Manufacturing activities logged growth for the first time since February, although the rebound was slower than expected (50.2 vs 50.5e.) as demand remains weak. Even though the data points towards an overall improvement, China´s recovery is still considerably more moderate than the one seen after confinement measures were lifted in 2020, with limited growth in production and new orders. The economic recovery is expected to remain in place, although it shows signs of fragility and is subject to growing risks of a slowdown in global demand. In the local market, consumption is expected to continue recovering in July as mitigations measures are lifted. Additionally, more data on the residential real-estate market showed signs of improvement with respect to the sector´s crisis. New home sales receded at a more moderate pace in June (-43% annual) and logged a 61.2% month to month rate of growth, a sign of improvement. Local governments have eased restrictions for the purchase of homes and decreased mortgage rates to boost demand. The sector´s recovery is expected to be slow but it´s starting to show signs that the worst may have already passed.

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