The Day at a Glance | January 9 2024

*In Mexico, general inflation closed at 4.66% in 2023, exceeding the consensus estimate of 4.55% and practically in line with our estimate of 4.62%. We estimate that it will set at 4.52% in 2024. 

*The production and export of automobiles in 2023 accumulated 3,779,234 and 1,361,433 units, respectively, according to INEGI data.  

*China threatened with new trade measures against Taiwan this Tuesday, increasing pressure ahead of the weekend elections. 

*Kansas Fed Governor Michelle Bowman abandoned her persistently hawkish stance on Monday, stating that she now considers the US monetary policy to be “sufficiently restrictive.”

Economic environment

In Mexico, general inflation set at 4.66% in 2023, exceeding the consensus estimate of 4.55% and practically in line with our estimate of 4.62%. Today, INEGI (The National Institute of Statistics and Geography) released December´s National Consumer Price Index, which logged a 0.71% increase, above the market´s estimate of 0.60% and our estimate of 0.67%. Meanwhile, core inflation, – which excludes the most volatile items such as energy and agricultural products, as well as government tariffs – grew by 0.44% in the last month of the year, slightly below the market estimate of 0.49% and our estimate of 0.51%. The statement highlights that the three items that had the greatest impact on inflation in said period were tomatoes, onions, and air transportation. In their annual change, general and core inflation closed 2023 at 4.66% and 5.09%, respectively. Considering the available information at the moment, we forecast that general inflation will close at 4.52% in 2024.