The Day at a Glance | December 19 2023

*INEGI published its Timely Indicator of Economic Activity, which forecasts that the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) recorded an annual 4.2% pace of growth in November.

*On Tuesday, the United States launched a multinational operation to safeguard trade in the Red Sea as attacks by Iranian-backed Yemeni militants forced more major shipping companies to divert, fueling concerns about a global economic impact.

*Former President Donald Trump´s campaign team expects that he could formally secure the Republican presidential nomination before March 19th.

*A decrease in interest rates in the Eurozone should take place at some point in 2024, said François Villeroy de Galhau, head of the Bank of France and a member of the ECB, on Tuesday.

*The European Union agreed to extend the suspension of tariffs on steel and aluminum with the US. 

*Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia has modernized almost its entire strategic nuclear arsenal, boasting that the war in Ukraine has shifted in Russia´s favor.

Economic environment

INEGI announced that the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE for its acronym in Spanish) estimates that the IGAE logged 4.2% y/y growth, which entails economic acceleration. November´s reading reflected growth at a faster pace than what was seen in October (3.8% prev.). These results are mainly attributed to an expected 5.1% increase (5.2% prev.) in secondary activities during November 2023, along with a 3.7% rise (2.2% prev.) in tertiary activities. On a monthly basis, the IOAE forecasts that the IGAE increased by 0.4% (0.1% prev.), with 0.4% growth in both the services and industrial sectors. Thus, if the IOAE´s forecasts materialize, the Mexican economy will have grown by 3.4% in the January – October period, compared to the same period of 2022.