The Day at a Glance | April 9 2025

 In Mexico, headline inflation for March stood at 3.80%, reinforcing expectations of an additional rate cut by the Central Bank of Mexico.

• Later today, the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy minutes will be released. We expect insights into the Fed’s stance on the current tariff environment in the U.S.

• Today, the new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump came into effect. These measures impact several countries, including U.S. allies — with the exception of Mexico and Canada, which were excluded.

• President Trump also announced that he will soon impose tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals as part of his strategy to revitalize domestic drug production and reduce foreign dependency during crises.

• According to Reuters, top Chinese leaders plan to meet to discuss measures aimed at boosting the economy and stabilizing capital markets. The agenda is expected to include strengthening domestic consumer spending, supporting the stock market, and potential incentives such as tax rebates for exports.

• Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank must evaluate without bias whether the economy is moving in line with its forecasts — suggesting a possible pause in interest rate hikes amidst market volatility triggered by U.S. tariffs.

• Oil prices plunged further on Wednesday, hitting four-year lows after China announced new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to President Trump’s tariff policy.

Economic Environment

In Mexico, the general inflation for March stood at 3.80%, contributing to expectations of an additional rate cut by the Central Bank of Mexico. INEGI reported that the National Consumer Price Index for March recorded a0.31% figure, in line with both our estimate (0.31%) and the market consensus (0.31%). On an annual basis, inflation set at 3.80%. The items with the largest upward impact on inflation were beef, housing, eateries, fondas, taquerías, and air travel. Additionally, the items with the largest downward impact were gasoline, onions, and potatoes. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes more volatile items like energy, agricultural goods, and government fees, increased by 0.43% in March, also almost in line with our estimate (0.42%). On an annual basis, core inflation stood at 3.64%. By component, goods rose by 2.98% year-over-year, and services increased by 4.35% year-over-year. Overall, inflation data for March supports the scenario of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Mexico. In this regard, the consensus estimates an additional 50 basis point cut on May 15^th.

Markets and Companies

Markets in the U.S. are logging mixed figures after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, stating it would impose an 84% levy on U.S. goods starting Thursday.

In Europe, stocks are trading with significant declines on Wednesday. The Stoxx 600 dropped 4% at 1:50 p.m. in London, with all sectors in negative territory. It´s also noteworthy that the European Union approved its first retaliation package on Wednesday to counteract U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.

In Asia, markets mostly fell after President Trump’s country-specific tariffs went into effect. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.74%, losing more than 20% from its peak in July, confirming a bear market.

Regarding commodities, U.S. crude oil is down following China’s imposition of retaliatory tariffs.

In contrast, gold is being driven by the search for safe-haven assets amidst rising trade tensions and fears of a recession.

In Mexico, the IPC is down 0.21%, and the exchange rate is at 20.91 after closing at 20.85 yesterday.

Corporate News

• Shares of U.S. pharmaceutical companies dropped after President Donald Trump announced Tuesday night that he would soon impose “a major tariff on pharmaceuticals.” Pfizer and Merck shares fell over -4%, while Eli Lilly lost more than -3%.

• Apple shares were down over -2% in premarket trading, extending a four-day losing streak that has wiped out roughly -25% of its market value. The company has been the hardest hit among the “Magnificent Seven” due to its strong reliance on the Chinese market.