The Day at a Glance | April 24 2023

*General inflation recorded its sixth straight biweekly decline. 

*The Chicago FED National Activity Index remained unchanged at -0.19 points in its March reading. 

*According to CNN, Joe Biden is expected to formally announce his 2024 re-election campaign, despite polls showing “tepid” support for the current President among the US population, with only 26% (NBC poll) of surveyed people believing Biden should run for President. 

*South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol left for the US on Monday to meet with President Joe Biden to discuss security issues. 

*Business confidence in Germany improved slightly in April due to an improvement in corporate expectations. 

*Banks in China are expecting interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy. 

Economic environment

General inflation set at 6.24% annual for the first half of April. This is the lowest reading for general inflation since October 2021, and it surprised to the downside against the consensus estimate of 6.25%. On a biweekly basis, it also surpassed the consensus estimate of -0.15% q/q, with a -0.16% q/q reading, marking its sixth consecutive biweekly decline. Even more importantly, the underlying component also continued to log more moderate figures: It recorded a 0.18% q/q reading, driven by a marked drop in the services sector (0.03% q/q), offsetting the acceleration in goods (0.31% q/q). In addition, non-core prices fell for the third consecutive biweekly period (-1.22% q/q) due to the decline in energy and government tariff sectors (-2.18% q/q). With this, on an annual basis, core inflation set at 7.75%, its lowest level since July 2022, while non-core inflation fell to 1.82%, its lowest reading since December 2022. Overall, the figure for the first half of April was positive, although focus remains on the commodities sector given its high annual variation rate of 9.73% and its acceleration in the biweekly period.