The Day at a Glance | April 19 2021

The Top

*Timely Indicator for Economic Activity in Mexico shows signs of a (-) 2.1% contraction in the economy during March.

*Japanese exports recorded their largest increase since 2017 in March (16.1%), a sign of a firm recovery in Asia.

*Central Bank of China will make a decision regarding the economy`s interest rates tonight.

Economic environment

The Timely Indicator for Economic Activity in Mexico (IOAE for its initials in Spanish) shows signs of a contraction in the economy during March. The indicator, which was made public by the INEGI, seeks to give a timely estimate for growth or contraction regarding economic activity in March. Estimates suggest there was a (-) 2.1% contraction in the last 12 months, which implies an improvement with respect to the -3.9% contraction logged in February. The industrial sector was the fastest to recover as secondary activities are still showing negative numbers (-0.9% annual), although it`s logging an improvement with respect to February`s figure (-3.1%). Within the possible ranges of variation, figures could even be positive for the industrial sector (the upper part of the range is 1.4%). The services sector shows a slower rate of recovery (-3.1% annual Mar. vs -4.3% Feb.) and is expected to continue to show a contraction, even in the most optimistic scenarios (upper part of the range is -1.4%). The Mexican economy`s recovery seems to be starting to boost and the manufacturing-export sector is expected to lead the recovery in 2021.