The Day at a Glance | December 11 2024

The Top

• In the US, CPI inflation stood at 2.7% in November.

• Chinese officials are considering allowing the Yuan to weaken in 2025 as they prepare for higher trade tariffs from the US when Donald Trump returns to the White House.

• Later today, the Bank of Canada will announce its final monetary policy decision of 2024, with a 50-basis-point rate cut being expected, which would lower the reference rate to 3.25%.

• According to Reuters, the Bank of England appears set to keep interest rates unchanged next week, moving more slowly to lower rates compared to central banks in Europe and the US.

• Japan’s producer inflation accelerated for the third consecutive month as companies continued to pass on rising raw material and labor costs, maintainingpressure on the country´s central bank to raise interest rates again.

• On Wednesday, France’s government introduced emergency legislation to allow the state to continue spending, collecting taxes, and issuing debt at the start of next year in the absence of an appropriate budget bill.

• On Wednesday, OPEC cut its forecasts for global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025, marking the group’s fifth consecutive downgrade in its monthly report.

Economic Environment

In the US, CPI inflation stood at 2.7% in November. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its consumer price inflation (CPI) figures for November, showing a 0.3% m/m increase based on seasonally adjusted data. The housing component rose by 0.3% m/m, accounting for nearly 40% of the overall CPI increase. On an annual basis, CPI inflation reached 2.7% in November, in line with both our expectations and the consensus forecast, following a 2.6% rise in October based on unadjusted data. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy and food, increased by 0.3% m/m in November, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth at this pace. Annually, core inflation stood at 3.3% in November, unchanged from the previous month.Overall, inflation figures aligned with consensus expectations and back the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate on December 18^th. 

Markets and Companies

S&P 500 futures rise following November’s inflation report, which met expectations. The Producer Price Index is also expected this week—these will be the last key economic data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

In Europe, markets edge higher. The Stoxx 600 was up 0.1% at 12:45 p.m. London time, with sectors showing mixed trends. Media stocks led gains (+1.1%), while retail stocks were down -2.4%.

Meanwhile, in Asia, markets closed with mixed results. Reports indicate that China began its annual economic conference on Wednesday, where it will outline economic policies and growth targets for the coming year.

In commodities, oil prices are trending higher as market participants anticipate increased demand from China, the top importer, following Beijing’s latest plans to boost economic growth.

Gold hit a two-week peak on Wednesday, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.

Cryptocurrencies are up, and in Mexico, IPC futures are in the green (+0.12%).

The exchange rate is at 20.17 after closing at 20.15 yesterday.

Corporate News

• Macy’s shares fell 9% after cutting its fiscal year forecast.

• Dave & Buster’s dropped more than 14% following disappointing third-quarter results and the announcement of its CEO’s departure.