The Day at a Glance | December 30 2022

*The Chicago PMI for December will be made known today; it`s expected to stay in contractionary territory for a fourth consecutive month. Additionally, the St. Louis FED warns of signs of an economic slowdown in over 50% of US states. 

*In Mexico, the Ministry of the Treasury and Public Credit (SHCP for its initials in Spanish) will make November`s finance and public debt figures known.

*At 9am, the Central Bank of Mexico will reveal November`s balance, which logged a 5,356 million peso figure in the previous month.

*China`s final 3Q22 current account figures were revised upwards slightly, and logged a surplus worth 144.3 billion dollars.

*Ukrainian forces knocked down 16 Russian drones Thursday night after Russian missiles left multiple Ukrainian regions without power. Ukrainian authorities expect a strong Russian attack on its power system just before New-Year and Orthodox Christian Christmas.

Economic environment

The FED gives warning signs of a recession. In a report made public this week, the St. Louis Federal Reserve revealed that 27 states recorded a drop in economic activity during October, exceeding the 26-state threshold, which suggests that the country will enter a recession “with a reasonable degree of confidence”. As a reference, 35 states logged a decrease in activity before the 2020 recession. Additionally, the San Francisco Federal Reserve informed that another possible indicator that is approaching a recession is the trend in unemployment rate; which, if it increases after it drops to its lowest level would suggest that a recession will occur in approximately 8 months. With this, the US unemployment rate recently reached its lowest level in September (3.5%), followed by a 3.7% figure in October and November. The FED expects the rate to set at 4.6% in 2023.