The Day at a Glance | September 30 2020

The Top

· Recovery in China strengthens during September.

· Disappointing presidential debate in the US: No clear winner, chaotic and with insults; there is still electoral uncertainty.

· European fiscal package faces its first challenges regarding its approval: Countries don`t agree on the required political conditions for the handing over of resources.

· ECB considers implementing a similar strategy as the FED, which would allow inflation above the 2% target for some time: Christine Lagarde.

· The elimination of up to 109 public trusts, most of them created to finance science and culture, was proposed in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies; this measure intends to free up resources for general spending.

Economic environment

Leading economic activity indicators (PMIs) in China showed greater strength in their recovery during September. The recovery in manufacturing and services slightly accelerated during the month and backed up the perception of a firm recovery in China. The manufacturing indicator increased above estimates (51.5 vs 51 prev.; 51.3 e.), boosted by greater production and export orders; meanwhile, the expansion in services also accelerated (55.9 vs 55.2 prev.), after restrictions were lifted slightly regarding visits to entertainment centers, which incentivized consumption. This way, the recovery in China continues to show strength at the end of the 3Q20 and suggests that authorities will not need to implement further fiscal or monetary stimulus; even though there are still risks for the 4Q20 regarding the virus.

After a disorderly debate, the political landscape in the US remains uncertain in light of the elections. The debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump last night was disappointing; it was marked by constant interruptions, insults and personal attacks. The confrontation impeded the clear presentation of proposals regarding relevant issues, such as economic policy. Trump once again denied any commitment to allowing a peaceful transition of power in case he loses the election and criticized the voting by mail system. He directly attacked Biden with constant interruptions and confrontations. The debate`s moderator was not successful in maintaining order and desperation led the democratic candidate to call the current US President a “clown” and a “racist”, in an unprecedented event. According to focus group assessments, which aim to measure the audience`s perception, US voters showed less intentions to vote given the lack of a clear discussion of ideas by both candidates. The results add to the persistent uncertainty regarding the electoral process in the US.