The Day at a Glance | Sep 6 2022

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*Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director of the WTO, assured that the recovery in global trade will continue being slow.

*Gross fixed investment in Mexico increased more than expected during June (0.7% monthly; 8.5% annual); private consumption barely increased (0.1% m/m; 6.8% y/y).

*A deep and extended recession in the Eurozone could ease interest rate increases: Martin Kazaks, member of the ECB.

*Economic indicators: The US services ISM will be made known (55.1e.).

Economic environment

WTO unoptimistic regarding an economic recovery. In an interview after her participation in the Africa Adaptation Summit in Rotterdam, Director of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, said that the global growth outlook is still unpromising and expects a slow recovery in trade – even in 2023. For Ngozi, the outlook is full of risks with the war in Ukraine triggering escalation in the energy and food crisis at a global level, persistent bottlenecks among production chains, intermittent COVID-19 outbreaks in China and extreme climate conditions that are proving that climate change is impacting global supply chains. Ngozi doesn’t discard that factories in Germany won´t shut down during winter due to energy scarcity, while fertilizer production for food cultivation could decrease at a worldwide level because of high natural gas prices and affect basic goods. Lastly, she believes it´s important to follow up on the Chinese Communist Party leaders´ meetings in October since the country´s “zero COVID” tolerance policy will be discussed. The Director of the WTO fears that the complicated, slow-growth outlook will extend into 2023, which is why the organization could once again cut its global trade growth estimates during the fall.

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