The Day at a Glance | November 4 2020

The Top

· No clear winner in United States elections.

· Economic indicators: Private sector adds less jobs than expected in the US economy in October (ADP, 365k vs 650k e.); the non-manufacturing ISM is expected to be published in the US (57.5 e., 57.8 prev.).

Economic environment

Election results in the US show a close race that doesn`t allow to declare a clear winner at the moment. One of the markets` scenarios of most uncertainty seems to be materializing after electoral results last night gave no clear winner. Still pending are final results from Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina. More clarity regarding results is expected to be had throughout the day, even though the vote count in Nevada won`t resume until Thursday. The most recent reports indicate that Biden has cut Trump`s advantage in Michigan and has extended his own in Wisconsin, which has inclined the scale towards a Democratic victory. However, Trump once again reiterated his concern regarding an electoral fraud and said that the Supreme Court would have to resolve such a matter. At the moment, Trump has 213 electoral college votes, while Biden has 238. A Democratic majority has already been confirmed in the House of Representatives, but 6 seats are yet to be won in the Senate. Each party has secured 47 Senators in the upper chamber and winning majority will be key to advance a legislative agenda. Markets fear a divided government that will delay negotiations of a new fiscal package or that will lead to a an insufficient package in an attempt to avoid the virus`s worst economic consequences.