The Day at a Glance | November 27 2023

*In October, Mexico’s trade balance logged a significantly lower than expected deficit.

*Industrial profits in China recorded a cumulative -7.8%y/y decrease during the first 10 months of 2023, logging relative improvement compared to the -9.0% y/y recorded in September.

*Israel and Hamas are moving towards the last day of a truce with the intention of extending a temporary peace agreement.

*Over the weekend, Russia launched its largest drone attack on Kyiv (75), Ukraine, temporarily disrupting electricity in 200 buildings.

Economic environment

Mexico´s trade balance recorded a deficit worth $252 million dollars in October. This figure set below both the market estimate of -$1.48 billion dollars and the -$2.09 billion logged in the same period of last year. There was a rebound in exports, which recorded an annual 5.64% hike, driven by both non-oil exports – which increased by 5.12% y/y and reached $48.78 billion dollars – and by oil exports, which logged a 14.09% y/y change, totaling $3.19 billion. Regarding the latter, the recovery in the other oil exports sub-category stood out, as it logged its first positive change since January (4.12% y/y); while on the non-oil side, the 5.26% y/y growth in manufacturing shipments is attributed entirely to the automotive sector, which experienced a 20.88% y/y increase. On the import side, a positive was recorded (1.83% y/y) after four consecutive months of setbacks. The progress made in October is explained by non-oil imports, which logged a 4.96% y/y increase, their best figure since May, and was backed by consumer goods (20.53% y/y) – specifically non-oil goods (29.46% y/y), as well as capital goods (19.42%). However, this was partially offset by a contraction in oil imports, which decreased -25.22% y/y. Taking this into account, the deficit logged in the oil trade balance moderated to its lowest level since August 2020, at -$776 million dollars, which reflected an annual -69.08% decrease in the deficit. Lastly, in the first 10 months of the year, the trade balance presented an accumulated worth -$10.34 billion dollars, the best figure recorded since 2020.

In the final hours of a truce between Israel and Hamas, hopes of an extended agreement are growing. After Hamas released 17 more hostages, including a four-year-old Israeli-American girl, US President Joe Biden pointed out that he hopes the temporary truce between Israel and Hamas will continue as more hostages are released. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who spoke with Biden this Sunday, stated that he would accept extending the truce if it led to the release of 10 hostages each additional day. However, he also stated that during his conversation with Biden, he mentioned that at the end of the truce, Israeli forces will “return with full force to achieve our goal,” which is the elimination of Hamas, as well as the release of all hostages. Lastly, Hamas expressed its desire to extend the truce – which began its last day on Monday – if serious efforts are made to release Palestinians detained by Israel. So far, Hamas has released a total of 58 hostages in exchange for 117 Palestinian prisoners.