The Day at a Glance | November 16 2021

The Top

*Retail sales once again outperformed estimates in the US (1.7% m / m vs 1.4% e.).

*Industrial production (3.5% annually) and retail sales (4.9%) grew more than expected in China during October.

*Joe Biden and Xi Jinping held talks today for more than three hours in an effort to reestablish cooperation between the two countries.

*IEA sees an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day in the supply of crude in this quarter, which could stabilize the price of energy.

*Shipping costs of goods could take up to two years to normalize: Sea-Intelligence.

*Biden signs $ 1 trillion infrastructure investment project.

*About 2 million new cases of COVID-19 were reported in Europe last week; the highest weekly number since the start of the pandemic.

Economic environment

Consumption in the United States remains firm. The most recent data on retail sales in the United States were above estimates (1.7% monthly vs. 1.4% e.) During October and showed that the main engine of growth in the economy remains in solid expansion. This is the highest monthly growth since March and, with it, at an annual rate, consumption in retail stores increased 16.3%. Deprived of its most volatile components, the sales index grew 1.4% monthly; while September was revised upwards (0.8%). The data shows growth in the sales of most retail businesses, reflecting that rising wages and high savings rates since the pandemic are driving consumption by Americans. This reinforces the idea that the economy remains on a strong growth trend and that the Fed has made the right decision by withdrawing some stimulus. However, persistent demand also has implications for inflation in the prices of goods, as disruptions in production chains limit supply and upward pressure on prices could be maintained.