The Day at a Glance | May 4 2023

*Private Consumption in Mexico logged a monthly -0.4% decrease in February. 

*Gross Fixed Investment rebounded in February. 

*The ECB increased the reference rate in 25bp. 

*In Mexico, the economically active population´s unemployment rate set at 2.4% in March. 

*Consumer confidence in Mexico decreased -0.3 points in April and set at 44.1. Four of its five components logged monthly decreases. 

*Light vehicle sales in Mexico reached 97,610 units in April; with this, 412,736 vehicles have been sold so far this year. 

*The services ISM marginally exceeded expectations by logging a 0.7 point increase with respect to the previous month and set at 51.9 (vs 51.8 e.) in April. 

*Producer inflation in the Eurozone recorded -1.6% m/m and 5.8% y/y figures in March, both 0.1% greater than what was expected by the consensus. Last month had recorded -0.5% m/m and 13.2% y/y figures. 

*China´s Caixin manufacturing PMI for April fell into contractionary territory for the first time in three months with a 49.5 point reading (vs 50.0 e.). 

*In March, the US trade balance set at -64.2 billion dollars, slightly above the expected deficit (-63.1 billion e.). 

Economic environment

Private Consumption receded -0.4% m/m in February. This figure marked a considerable decrease from the previously logged 1.76% (January), and is mainly attributed to a -5.9% m/m drop in the consumption of imported goods, given the fact that the previous month recorded a strong 11.66%. The consumption of domestic goods fell into negative territory as it logged a monthly -0.58% figure, which was offset by the services component (0.48% m/m) and set consumption of domestic goods and services at 0.15% m/m. At an annual rate, Private Consumption increased 3.54%, setting below last year´s average growth rate (6.66%). In a disaggregate manner, although the consumption of domestic services and imported goods slowed down when compared to the last year and a half´s figures, they continue growing at a solid pace – 6.19% y/y and 5.54% y/y, respectively. Meanwhile, the consumption of domestic goods has been logging a slowing trend and increased 0.21% y/y in February. 

After a complicated first month of 2023, Gross Fixed Investment (GFI) rebounded in February. At an annual rate, the GFI index recorded a 1.9% increase (vs -0.2% in January), and was boosted by a recovery in construction, which once again increased at a 0.62% m/m pace – as well as because of an acceleration in the purchase of machinery and equipment (2.92%). Non-residential construction (2.33) and imported machinery and equipment – which recorded its largest monthly change in 12 months (5.96%) – were the components that stood out. At an annual rate, Gross Fixed Investment logged 12.4% growth, the fastest pace recorded since August 2021, with construction increasing 9.0% y/y, and spending on machinery and equipment hiking 16.46% y/y.