Daily Brief | May 30 2025

Top News

·     In the U.S., strong consumer spending data was recorded and personal spending inflation came in lower than expected in April.

·     An appeals court granted President Donald Trump an extension to maintain his tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, despite a prior ruling that suspended them.

·     President Trump summoned Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to a White House meeting — their first since the beginning of the administration — and told him he was making a “mistake” by not cutting interest rates.

·     U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade negotiations with China are currently stalled and, given the complexity of the process, a call between the two presidents may be necessary.

·     Mexico is proposing to bring forward the USMCA review to September 2025, aiming to provide more certainty amidst trade volatility and economic slowdown; the review was originally scheduled for 2026. 

Economic Outlook

In the U.S., consumer spending data was strong and personal spending inflation surprised to the downside in April. Disposable personal income rose 0.8%, while nominal personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.2% in April. Annual PCE inflation — the Fed’s preferred gauge — stood at 2.1%, below the 2.2% market estimate and down from 2.3% in March. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, came in at 2.5%, in line with consensus and down from March’s 2.7%. On a monthly basis, both headline and core inflation rose 0.1%. Looking ahead, the Cleveland Fed estimates that May´s PCE inflation will reach 2.4%. Overall, the data was favorable: private consumption kept growing and April´s inflation was lower than expected.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. futures fell Friday morning after President Trump accused China of violating the preliminary trade deal, reigniting fears of a prolonged trade war between the two countries.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.6%, led by gains in the energy, healthcare, and utilities sectors.

Meanwhile, Asian markets closed lower, pressured by U.S. economic slowdown, inflation concerns, and ongoing legal uncertainty around Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

In commodities, oil prices are set for a second consecutive weekly decline due to expectations of another OPEC+ production hike in July and uncertainty following Trump’s tariff reinstatement. Similarly, gold prices are down as the dollar strengthens.

In Mexico, IPC futures are trading higher, while the exchange rate stands at 19.26 after closing at 19.32 yesterday.

Arca Continental inaugurated its largest distribution center in Mexico, located in Tonalá, Jalisco, with an investment totaling MXN 1.4 billion. The new facility, which will operate with a sustainability focus, will serve over 40,000 clients and create up to 1,200 jobs.

Corporate News

• UiPath shares surged 12% after the automation software company reported revenue above estimates and raised its full-year guidance.

• Ulta Beauty shares climbed 9% after the company raised its annual profit outlook and beat quarterly expectations, citing lower inventory losses and strong demand from new — especially celebrity-owned — brand launches.

• American Eagle shares dropped 7% after the apparel retailer posted an adjusted loss of 29 cents per share in Q1, wider than the 22-cent loss estimated by LSEG.