The Day at a Glance | May 22 2025

Top News

*In Mexico, consumer inflation in the first half of May surprised significantly to the upside.

*The Global Indicator of Economic Activity showed that the Mexican economy grew 2.5% year-over-year in March 2025 (vs. 3.0% estimated), rebounding after a -0.6% decline the previous month and marking its strongest expansion in 9 months.

*In the U.S., the House of Representatives passed the fiscal and spending bill that enacts much of President Trump’s political agenda—by just one vote. The legislation is expected to increase the deficit.

*For the week ending May 17th, initial jobless claims in the U.S. stood at 227,000 (vs. 230,000 expected), down from 229,000 the prior week.

*Eurozone PMI data showed that overall activity in the region declined in May for the first time in five months. The composite PMI fell to 49.5 (from 50.4), reaching a six-month low. 

Economic outlook

In Mexico, consumer inflation for the first half of May sharply surprised to the upside. The National Consumer Price Index rose 0.09%, against a consensus estimate of a -0.13% decline. On an annual basis, headline inflation reached 4.22%, well above the 3.90% recorded in the second half of April. Core inflation—which excludes the most volatile items like energy, agricultural goods, and regulated prices—increased 0.16% in the first half of May, in line with the 0.15% market estimate. Annually, core inflation stood at 3.97%. By components and on an annual basis, goods prices rose 3.55%, while services increased 4.60%. Non-core inflation climbed to 4.78% year-over-year, up from 3.57% the previous biweekly period. A decline in inflation was expected due to the seasonal electricity subsidies applied in 11 cities across the country, but there were unexpected spikes not only in volatile items like chicken and tomatoes but also across various goods and services. If adverse readings persist, the Central Bank of Mexico may be forced to pause its rate-cutting cycle.

Markets and stocks

Major U.S. indices were trading mixed this morning. Concerns about the expanding fiscal deficit weighed on markets after the House of Representatives passed a package including tax cuts and increased military spending, with a forecasted cost exceeding $4 trillion. Long-term Treasury yields rose in this context, fueling renewed inflation fears. 

Weekly jobless claims came in at 227,000, slightly below expectations. Meanwhile, European markets traded in negative territory. Lastly, Asian markets logged losses.

In commodities, oil prices fell after reports that OPEC+ is considering increasing production in July, which could put downward pressure on prices due to a broader supply. Gold remained above $3,300 per ounce, despite a slight drop driven by a stronger dollar.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb. The 10-year yield stood at 4.60%, while the 2-year yield edged down to 3.99%.

In Mexico, the IPC index is trending lower. Meanwhile, the peso is trading at 19.41 per dollar, after setting at 19.38 yesterday at market close.

Corporate news

*Nike confirmed it will resume direct sales of its products on Amazon for the first time since 2019, aiming to expand its digital footprint and enhance customer experience.

*AT&T announced the acquisition of Lumen’s residential fiber business, a move that will significantly expand “AT&T Fiber” and accelerate its network rollout. The company said it expects to double its fiber coverage by 2030.

*Solar sector stocks declined after the House of Representatives passed a fiscal bill that eliminates key clean energy tax credits, particularly affecting companies such as Sunrun, Enphase, and SolarEdge.