The Day at a Glance | May 21 2025

The Top

● In Mexico, retail sales rose in March. 

● President Trump’s tax and spending cut proposal is under pressure due to splits within the Republican Party.

● The UK’s annual inflation rose 3.5% in April, after standing at 2.6% in March. This is the highest reading since January 2024.

● A Reuters survey on the U.S. economy revealed that GDP growth is expected to reach 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, while consumer inflation is forecasted to stand at 3.1% this year and 2.8% next year.

● China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations concluded negotiations to define their free trade zone, incorporating sectors such as the digital economy, the green economy, and other emerging industries.

● Oil prices are up 1.0% after reports that Israel is preparing a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Economic Environment

In Mexico, retail sales rose in March. INEGI reported that retail sales increased 0.5% m/m in March, above the market consensus expectation of a 0.1% m/m rise and the 0.3% m/m increase seen in February. On an annual basis, and according to original figures, sales rose 4.3%. A closer look at the annual data shows that nearly all categories posted growth, except for hardware and building material sales, which stagnated. Notably, the strongest annual growth was seen in internet and catalog sales (17.2%), while the weakest was in textile products, costume jewelry, fashion accessories, and footwear (0.8%). Across Mexico, all states recorded annual growth. Overall, retail sales rose for the fifth consecutive month at the margin, suggesting that consumer spending continues to recover. 

Markets and Companies

U.S. equity indexes are trading lower this morning, as markets grow concerned over another spike in Treasury yields and closely monitor the progress of a new budget proposal in the U.S.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.3%, with most sectors in negative territory following the earnings reports from M&S, JD Sports, and Curry’s, and after UK inflation came in higher than expected.

Meanwhile, in Asia, markets closed mixed after Wall Street’s rally paused.

In commodities, oil prices are rising after reports suggested Israel may be preparing a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, fueling fears of a supply disruption in the key oil-producing Middle East region.

Gold prices are also climbing, reaching their highest level in more than a week, boosted by a weaker dollar and increased safe-haven demand amidst U.S. fiscal uncertainty.

In Mexico, the IPC is down 0.30%, while the exchange rate stands at 19.36 after closing at 19.26 yesterday.

Corporate News

• Shares of Palo Alto Networks fell 3.7% after its gross margin came in below estimates. However, the company beat expectations on both revenue and earnings.

• Shares of UnitedHealth dropped more than 6% after HSBC downgraded the health insurance giant, citing still-elevated valuations despite the recent sell-off.