The Day at a Glance | May 18 2023

*The Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE for its initials in Spanish) now points to slower growth in the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE for its initials in Spanish) in March compared to the estimate made known a month ago. 

*Vice-President of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, stated on Thursday that the ECB will have to continue increasing interest rates to bring inflation back to its 2% target, although he added that most of the “tightening” has already been done. 

*In the US, unemployment claims fell more than expected (to 242,000 vs 252,000 expected) during the week ending May 13, down from the previous 264,000, which suggests that the labor market remains tight. 

*The Philadelphia FED´s manufacturing Index logged improvement in May, rising from a -31.3 point reading last month to -10.4 points this month, although it remained in negative territory for a ninth consecutive time. 

*President of the United States, Joe Biden, arrived in Japan to participate in the G7 summit, where participants will seek to strengthen their alliances amidst China´s growing military and economic ambitions, as well as discuss their support for Ukraine. 

*Today at 1:00pm Mexico City time, Banxico will announce its monetary policy decision, for which we expect it will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 11.25%. 

Economic environment

The Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE) now forecasts a 3.2% annual rate of growth for the Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE) in March. This figure implies a downward revision of 0.6pp from the 3.8% figure made known a month ago. A significant part of this adjustment stems from the 1.5% annual reading in the secondary sector for March, which was published last Friday and compares unfavorably to the previously considered 3.0% y/y figure. Additionally, the estimate for the tertiary sector was also revised downward from 4.2% annual a month ago to the current estimate of 3.9% y/y. Furthermore, for April, the IOAE forecasts that the IGAE will record a slowdown (to 2.6% y/y) in tertiary activities.