The Day at a Glance | May 15 2023

The Top

*Industrial production in the Eurozone experienced a larger than expected monthly setback in March, pushing its annual reading into negative territory. 

*The New York FED Manufacturing Index recorded a sharp, 42.6 units drop in May. 

*US President Joe Biden and Congressional leaders are expected to meet on Tuesday, following a “productive” weekend of staff-level negotiations, where participants found common ground on rescinding unutilized Covid-19 aid funds. 

*On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in the United Kingdom ahead of the highly anticipated counteroffensive. Sunak is expected to announce a support package in the coming hours, which would include hundreds of air defense missiles. 

Economic environment

Industrial production in the Eurozone decreased -4.1% monthly in March. This figure compares unfavorably to the previous 1.5% monthly and the -2.4% expected by the consensus. All components – except for durable consumer goods (2.8% month-to-month) – showed negative readings, with capital goods standing out as they logged a -15.4% monthly setback. On an annual basis, the Eurozone`s industrial sector turned negative with a -1.4% figure. Four out of its five components logged negative variations. Both monthly and annual readings were exacerbated by the sharp decline in Ireland`s production (-26.3% month-to-month and -26.1% year-on-year), linked to the computing, electronics, and optical products sector, which is known for its volatility. However, the fact that the majority of the economies in the block reported negative figures, including Germany (-3.1% monthly), indicates weakening in the industrial sector at the end of the 1Q23. 

The New York FED`s manufacturing activity index, known as the Empire State index, logged a considerable fall (-31.8 units, from a previous 10.8 point level) in May. This significant decrease is mainly explained by the new orders component, which set at -28.1 points (-53 m/m), although most of the components recorded considerable decreases. On the positive side, the six-month expectations indicator increased 3.2 units compared to the previous month, reaching 9.8 points.