The Day at a Glance | March 5 2025

The Top

• In Mexico, gross fixed investment and private consumption declined in December 2024.

• In the U.S., 77,000 private-sector jobs were created in February, nearly half of the market consensus estimate of 140,000, according to ADP’s private employment survey.

• U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said in an interview that Donald Trump’s administration could announce a possible tariff relief for Mexico and Canada today.

• Later, the ISM services index for February will be released, with the consensus estimating a 52.6 point figure. 

• President Donald Trump told Congress on Tuesday that “America is back” after reshaping U.S. foreign policy, igniting a trade war, and expelling tens of thousands of government workers in six turbulent weeks since his return to power.

• Bank of Japan Vice President Shinichi Uchida stated that the institution could raise interest rates at a pace consistent with prevailing market and economist expectations, keeping open the possibility of an increase in short-term financing costs.

• Oil prices fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday as investors reacted to OPEC+ plans to increase production in April and rising trade tensions following U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico.

Economic Environment

In Mexico, gross fixed investment and private consumption declined in December 2024. Gross fixed investment fell -4.0% y/y in December 2024, according to original figures. Within the data, construction dropped -9.4% y/y, while machinery and equipment increased 2.5% y/y, also based on unadjusted figures. By sector, private investment fell -2.4% y/y, and public investment declined -14.9% y/y. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, investment decreased -2.6% in the last month of 2024.Meanwhile, private consumption in Mexico reported an annual decline of -0.7% y/y in December, according to original figures. Within this category, spending on imported goods fell -1.5% y/y, while spending on domestic goods and services dropped -0.1% y/y. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, private consumption declined -1.1% in December. Overall, both private consumption and gross fixed investment showed declines toward the end of last year, and we do not rule out the possibility that this trend could continue for several more months in 2025.

Markets and Companies

US futures are slightly higher, recovering after a sharp decline this week following President Trump’s tariffs, which rattled markets. Additionally, the latest employment data heightened concerns about the economy.

European stocks rose on Wednesday amidst expectations that Trump could ease the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and that Germany may reform its fiscal rules to increase defense and infrastructure spending.

In Asia, markets mostly closed higher as investors assessed China’s growth and inflation targets against the backdrop of US tariffs and rising global trade tensions weighing on sentiment.

In commodities, oil fell for a third consecutive session due to OPEC+’s production increase and Trump’s tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, which escalated trade tensions. Meanwhile, gold climbed on a weaker dollar and political uncertainty.

The exchange rate stands at 20.51 after closing at 20.55 yesterday; and in Mexico, IPC futures are trending higher (+0.74%).

Industrias Peñoles reported revenues of $1.887 billion, a 28.2% y/y increase, driven by higher precious metal prices. EBITDA stood at $643 million, with a 34% margin (+17.7 pp y/y), supported by better metal prices and a favorable exchange rate, exceeding our expectations and making it a positive report.

Corporate News

• Nvidia shares rebounded 2% on Wednesday morning after falling more than 7% so far this week.

• CrowdStrike dropped over 7% after projecting first-quarter operating income between $173.1 million and $180 million, below analysts’ expectations of $218.2 million.

• General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis gained in pre-market trading on hopes that Trump could reduce tariffs on Canada and Mexico. GM rose 3.9%, Ford 1.8%, and Stellantis 5.7% after losses in the previous session.