The Day at a Glance | March 31 2025

The Top

• In China, March PMI´s showed stronger momentum; however, there is forward-looking uncertainty due to the imposition of reciprocal tariffs.

• The Bank of Japan announced on Monday that it will reduce purchases of ultra-long-term bonds, marking another step in its plan to shrink its balance sheet.

• Goldman Sachs revised its estimates for the U.S. economy due to tariffs. It raised its year-end 2025 core PCE inflation forecast from 3.0% to 3.5%, while cutting its 2025 growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.0%.

• The Chinese government announced a $71.6 billion capital injection into four of its largest state-owned banks through new share issuance, aiming to strengthen their capital base and stimulate the economy.

• Inflation in Germany fell more than expected in March, according to data published Monday, reinforcing the case made by European Central Bank officials who advocate for further interest rate cuts.

• On Monday, the Kremlin said that Russia and the U.S. are working on proposals for a possible peace agreement in Ukraine and on strengthening bilateral relations, despite U.S. President Donald Trump saying he was “upset” with Vladimir Putin.

• Oil prices held steady on Monday as investors adopted a cautious stance amid threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and his warning to Iran of possible military action if no agreement is reached over its nuclear program.

Economic Environment

In China, March PMI´s showed stronger momentum; however, uncertainty looms with the upcoming announcement of reciprocal tariffs. China’s composite PMI stood at 51.4 in March 2025, up from 51.1 in February and 50.1 in January, marking three consecutive months of improvement. The non-manufacturing PMI reached 50.8 in March, up from 50.4 a month earlier. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose from 50.2 in February to 50.5 in March, its highest level since March 2024. Within the manufacturing index, gains were seen in production, new orders, and inventories, although employment and delivery times declined slightly. Overall, the data suggests that the world’s second-largest economy maintained solid momentum — and even accelerated — heading into the end of the first quarter. However, there is uncertainty revolving around the reciprocal tariffs set to be announced on Wednesday, April 2^nd.

Markets and Companies

Main U.S. indexes are trending lower as investors await greater clarity on Donald Trump’s tariff plans.

This Monday marks the final day of what has been a turbulent month and quarter for Wall Street. The S&P 500 entered correction territory in March after hitting a record high in February. As of Friday’s close, it was 9.2% below its all-time high.

In Europe, markets are posting sharp declines as investors brace for a series of Trump tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday, including a 25% levy on all cars not manufactured in the U.S.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei entered correction territory as Trump’s impending tariffs triggered a broad sell-off. 

In commodities, oil prices rose after Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and warned Iran of possible military action if it fails to reach a deal over its nuclear program.

Gold prices soared past $3,100 per ounce on Monday, hitting an all-time high. Fears of potential inflation stemming from U.S. tariffs drove the safe-haven asset towards its strongest quarter since 1986.

In Mexico, the IPC is trending lower (-0.52%). 

Over the weekend, the exchange rate ranged between a low of 20.34 and a high of 20.44. It currently stands at 20.39. 

Corporate News

• Tesla shares dropped more than 6% after Stifel cut its price target. The firm noted that the slower-than-expected rollout of Tesla’s new Model Y and recent protests could weigh on short-term sales.

• Auto stocks declined ahead of the imminent implementation of Trump’s tariffs on imported cars. In an interview with NBC News over the weekend, the president said he couldn’t care less if automakers raised prices as a result of the tariffs. On Monday, shares of Stellantis were down more than 3%, while GM and Ford dropped more than 2% and 1%, respectively.