The Day at a Glance | March 27 2025

The Top

● Mexico’s trade balance recorded a trade surplus of 2.212 billion dollars in February.

● Later today, Mexico’s central bank will announce its March monetary policy decision, where a 50-basis-point rate cut is expected, bringing the benchmark interest rate down to 9.0%.

● U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, effective April 2, impacting foreign manufacturers as well as U.S. companies that produce abroad.

● Donald Trump warned that he will impose higher tariffs on the European Union and Canada if they cooperate to economically harm the United States, further escalating international trade tensions.

● In the week ending March 22, 2025, initial jobless claims in the U.S. stood at 224,000 (225,000 expected), slightly down from the previous week’s figure of 225,000.

● Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang on Thursday pledged stronger policy support for the world’s No.2 economy, which he said had started 2025 well and was on track to hit this year’s growth target, buoyed by advancements in AI and other technologies.

● France pledged 2 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine as some 30 leaders met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Paris on Thursday to discuss strengthening Kyiv’s position and what role they might play if a peace deal is struck with Russia.

● Oil prices were steady on Thursday as markets assessed new U.S. tariffs, while concerns about global supply kept prices near one-month highs.

Economic Environment

Mexico’s trade balance recorded a surplus of 2.212 billion dollars in February. In the second month of the year, a trade surplus (exports minus imports) of 2.212 billion dollars was reported, compared to a deficit of 4.558 billion dollars recorded a year earlier. In February 2025, exports declined by 2.9% year-over-year, reflecting a 1.7% drop in non-oil exports and a sharp 24.4% fall in oil exports. Within non-oil exports, agricultural exports fell by 6.1% y/y, mineral extractive exports rose by 17.4% y/y, and manufacturing exports decreased by 1.8% y/y. On the import side, total imports fell by 8.3% y/y in February 2025, driven by declines in both oil (-3.0%) and non-oil (-8.6%) imports. By type of goods, imports of consumer goods, intermediate goods, and capital goods declined by 10.1%, 7.5%, and 11.9%, respectively. Overall, trade balance figures for the first two months of the year showed a slightly narrower deficit compared to last year, although still within the seasonal pattern observed in recent years. The improvement in the trade balance was mainly due to a larger surplus in the non-oil goods balance and a smaller deficit in the oil goods balance.

Markets and companies

U.S. major indexes were trading lower this morning as investors digested a new round of tariffs announced by Donald Trump, including a 25% tariff on all cars not assembled in the U.S., which weighed on auto sector stocks. In Europe, markets also retreated following the news, with automakers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis particularly affected. The renewed trade tensions have reignited concerns about economic growth in the region. In Asia, markets closed mixed.

In the commodities market, oil prices were declining amid lower inventories in the U.S. and fresh sanctions on crude exporters such as Venezuela and Iran. Meanwhile, gold extended its gains as demand for safe-haven assets increased, rising to $3,036 per ounce.

In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 4.36%, while the 2-year yield stood at 3.99%.

In Mexico, the IPC was trading lower at 52,729 points. Meanwhile, the exchange rate held at 20.34 pesos per dollar, compared to 20.11 the previous day.

At its Annual General Meeting, Cemex approved a cash dividend of $130 million, to be paid in four installments, which would represent approximately $0.18 pesos per CPO, implying a 1.5% yield.

Corporate news

• GameStop announced a plan to acquire bitcoin using corporate debt, a strategy that increases the company’s exposure to cryptocurrency volatility. Investors raised concerns over the risks of allocating capital to such assets.

• Alibaba unveiled its new open-source AI model “Qwen2.5-Omni-7B,” a multimodal tool designed to run on mobile devices.

• Chinese company H3C warned clients of a potential shortage of Nvidia’s H20 chip — the only model legally available in China under U.S. export restrictions — which could affect Nvidia’s expansion in a key market.