The Day at a Glance | March 25 2025

• Retail sales in Mexico beat expectations.
• U.S. President Donald Trump warned that he could impose 25% tariffs on automobile, aluminum, and pharmaceutical imports, stating that he would announce them in the very near future.
• Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, indicated that he expects only one rate cut this year, suggesting a cautious approach in light of persistent inflation in the U.S.
• Business confidence in Germany rose in March, according to a survey published on Tuesday, as companies anticipate a recovery after two years of contraction in Europe’s largest economy.
• Bank of Japan policymakers discussed the pace of future interest rate hikes after deciding to raise the short-term rate to its highest level in 17 years, according to minutes from their January meeting released on Tuesday.
• On Tuesday, Russia stated that it´s willing to reach a new agreement on Black Sea navigation security as a possible step toward a ceasefire with Ukraine—but only if the U.S. orders President Volodymyr Zelensky to comply.
• Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive day on Tuesday amidst expectations of tighter global supply after the U.S. announced tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan crude. However, OPEC+ plans to increase production in May limited gains.

Economic Environment

Retail sales in Mexico beat expectations. INEGI reported that retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in January, surpassing both market consensus expectations and the 0.1% m/m growth recorded a month earlier. Annually, based on original figures, sales increased by 2.7% in January, also exceeding the market forecast of 1.1% growth. Within the annual figures, online sales stood out with a 19.1% increase, while grocery, food, beverage, and tobacco sales rose 6.8%. In contrast, self-service and department store sales barely changed (-0.3%), and health care product sales declined by -1.1%. Overall, retail sales performed better than expected, though some leading indicators suggest there will be a possible moderation in the coming months.

Markets and Companies

Major U.S. stock indices are trading mixed after two consecutive sessions of gains. Investors remain focused on the imposition of tariffs in the U.S., set to take effect on April 2^nd. However, recent reports suggest that the Trump administration may show greater flexibility, potentially granting exemptions for certain products and countries. This provided some relief to investors, though uncertainty on the matter persists. On the economic front, today’s key release is the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index. In Europe, equity markets were trading higher, while mixed figures were observed in Asia.

U.S. Treasury yields are also showing mixed movements. The 2-year yield edged slightly lower to 4.02%, while the 10-year yield ticked up to 4.33%.

In commodities, oil continues its upward streak following U.S. announcements of tariffs on countries importing Venezuelan crude and new sanctions on Iran aimed at disrupting its oil exports. Meanwhile, gold and silver are trading higher. 

The peso-dollar exchange rate stands at $20.0, holding steady from yesterday’s close.

Corporate News

• According to media reports, Boeing is attempting to withdraw its guilty plea for misleading the U.S. government regarding the 737 Max crashes in 2018 and 2019. The company is seeking more favorable terms from the Department of Justice. Its shares were up slightly in pre-market trading.
• New Tesla vehicle registrations in the European Union fell 47% y/y in February, following a 50% drop in January. This decline contrasts with a 24% increase in overall electric vehicle registrations during the same period, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. Despite this, Tesla shares surged nearly 12% yesterday, though they remain down over 30% year-to-date. Shares are rising in pre-market trading.