The Day at a Glance | March 21 2025

The Top

● The latest Citi survey projects a more moderate pace of economic growth in 2025 and 2026.

● The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions targeting companies and individuals linked to the financing of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in response to its global destabilization efforts.

● Donald Trump signed an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to accelerate the extraction of strategic minerals in the United States, aiming to reduce dependence on China and strengthen supply chains.

● Japan’s core inflation hit 3.0% in February and an index stripping away the effect of fuel rose at the fastest pace in nearly a year, a sign of broadening price pressure that reinforces market expectations of further interest rate hikes.

● Germany gave the final green light on Friday to a massive surge in borrowing seen as boosting the country’s anaemic economy and ailing corporate sector – but just not in the short term.

● Britain’s Heathrow Airport was shut on Friday after a huge fire at a nearby substation knocked out its power, stranding passengers around the world and angering airlines who questioned how such crucial infrastructure could fail.

● Oil prices fell slightly on Friday but were heading for a second consecutive weekly gain as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and the latest output plan from the OPEC+ producer group raised expectations of tighter supply.

Economic Environment

The latest Citi survey projects a more moderate pace of economic growth in 2025 and 2026. The consensus from Citi’s survey revised downward its growth forecast for the Mexican economy from 0.8% to 0.6% in 2025, and from 1.8% to 1.7% in 2026. Additionally, the survey revealed that respondents revised upward their estimates for headline inflation this year from 3.77% to 3.80%, and for next year from 3.70% to 3.78%. Meanwhile, the consensus still expects Banco de México to cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points on March 27. They also revised down their year-end forecast for the benchmark rate from 8.25% to 8.00%, and kept it unchanged at 7.50% for the end of 2026. On the other hand, the exchange rate is now expected to close 2025 at 20.98 pesos per dollar (previously 21.00) and 2026 at 21.50 (unchanged). Overall, Citi’s survey points to several changes in the economic outlook, with the most notable being the downward revision to growth expectations, which, in our view, could continue to be adjusted lower given the ongoing economic weakness.

Markets and companies

The main U.S. indices were trading lower this morning. In relevant news, Nike warned of a new decline in sales due to tariffs and weak consumer confidence, while FedEx revised its earnings guidance downward, citing weakness in the U.S. industrial sector. In Europe, markets were also trading lower, led by the travel sector, after Heathrow Airport was shut down due to a fire at a nearby electrical substation, affecting over 145,000 passengers. Finally, Asian markets closed in negative territory.

In the commodities market, oil prices were falling amid new U.S. sanctions against Iranian crude exporters, raising expectations of a reduction in global supply. Additionally, OPEC+ announced new additional production cuts for seven member countries, effective until June 2026. Meanwhile, gold was retreating after reaching all-time highs earlier this week, pressured by a stronger dollar and profit-taking. Despite the pullback, the metal remains up for the week.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields were down. The 10-year note was at 4.21%, while the 2-year note fell to 3.91%. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady and project two cuts later this year has influenced yields.

As for the local stock market, the IPC was trading lower, standing at 53,091 points. Meanwhile, the exchange rate held steady at 20.26, compared to 20.15 the previous day.

Cemex announced the construction of a new low-carbon mortar plant in the south of the United Kingdom, as part of the expansion of its Urban Solutions business. The plant, located near London, will begin operations in the second half of 2025 and will produce its Vertua product line.

Corporate news

Micron Technology beat expectations by reporting revenues of $8.05 billion and adjusted earnings of $1.56 per share, driven by strong growth in its data center business, where sales tripled.

FedEx once again cut its earnings guidance to a range of $18 to $18.60 per share (previously $19–$20), citing continued weakness in the U.S. industrial sector and lower demand in its business segment. The company also revised its revenue expectations, now projecting flat or slightly lower figures compared to last year.

Nike warned of a double-digit drop in sales for the current quarter, pressured by new tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and challenges in clearing inventory—despite having exceeded market expectations in its most recent quarter.