The Day at a Glance | March 19 2025

The Top

• The Leading Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) in Mexico suggests that consumption slowed down in the first quarter of 2025.

• The Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, while warning about high global economic uncertainty, suggesting that future rate hikes will largely depend on the U.S. tariff measures.

• Later, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision will be announced, with no rate changes expected, but it will be important to know the new trajectory for the federal funds rate projected by members in their forecasts.

• The consensus expects the People’s Bank of China to keep its 1-year and 5-year lending rates unchanged later in the day, according to a Reuters survey.

• Oil prices decreased by nearly 0.2% on Wednesday after Russia agreed to President Donald Trump’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire in both countries´ energy infrastructure. 

Economic Environment

The Leading Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) in Mexico suggests that consumption slowed down in the first quarter of 2025. INEGI reported that the IOCP, a nowcasting model for private consumption, estimates a 0.8% year-on-year increase in January and a 1.7% year-on-year decline in February, according to seasonally adjusted figures. On a monthly basis, the IOCP indicates stagnation in private consumption in January and a 0.1% decline in February, also seasonally adjusted. Thus, private consumption in the country could decrease by about 1.0% year-on-year in 1Q25, after stagnating in the last quarter of the previous year, according to our estimates. This is highly relevant, as private consumption accounts for just over 70% of GDP. Overall, the IOCP figures suggest that private consumption slowed down in the first quarter, and we do not rule out that, given the high uncertainty, weakness may continue in the coming months.

Markets and Companies

The S&P 500 is up as markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The consensus expects the central bank to keep rates unchanged.

In Europe, markets logged mixed performance. The Stoxx600 index fell by around 0.22% at 12:15 p.m. in London, with most sectors in negative territory.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets closed mixed after declines on Wall Street, while Japan kept its interest rate at 0.5% amidst uncertainty over U.S. tariffs.

Regarding commodities, oil prices fell on Wednesday after Russia accepted President Trump’s proposal to temporarily halt attacks on energy infrastructures between Moscow and Kyiv.

Gold retreated from its record high as the market awaits the Fed’s decision.

In Mexico, the IPC index is down -0.06%; and the exchange rate stands at 19.99 after closing at 19.92 yesterday.

América Móvil announced it would propose an increase in the annual dividend to $0.52 per share, representing an 8.3% increase compared to the previous year. This proposal will be put to a vote at the shareholders’ meeting scheduled for April 2025. If approved, the dividend will be paid in two equal installments. Additionally, the Board of Directors will propose a share buyback fund of 10 billion pesos for the period from April 2025 to April 2026.

Corporate News

• HealthEquity shares fell 15% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 2024 earnings, with an EPS of $0.69 compared to the estimated $0.72.

• General Mills shares fell more than 3% after lowering its full-year guidance and reporting sales of $4.84 billion, below the $4.96 billion estimated.