The Day at a Glance | March 18 2025

The Top

• Industrial production in the U.S. surprised to the upside in February due to a rebound in the automotive sector.

• The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revised down its global economic growth estimates due to heightened trade tensions among G20 countries and increased uncertainty. For Mexico, the organization forecasts a -1.3% GDP contraction in 2025.

• In the U.S., import prices rose by 0.4% in February, exceeding market expectations of a -0.1% decline. Compared to the previous year, import prices increased by 2.0%.

• Consumer inflation in Canada unexpectedly rebounded to 2.6% y/y in February after the expiration of a sales tax exemption in mid-January.

• This week, monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will be released.

• Oil prices rebounded by more than 1% on Tuesday from the previous session, reaching their highest level in March. This was driven by instability in the Middle East and plans by Chinese officials to implement additional economic stimulus measures.

Economic Environment

Industrial production in the U.S. surprised to the upside in February due to a rebound in the automotive sector. Industrial activity increased by 0.7% m/m, well above the consensus expectation of 0.2% and the 0.3% increase recorded in January. Within the data, manufacturing rose by 0.9% m/m, driven by an 8.5% m/m surge in automotive production. Additionally, mining advanced by 2.8% m/m, while utilities declined by -2.5% m/m. Capacity utilization in the industrial sector stood at 78.2% in February, 1.4 percentage points below its long-term average (1972–2024), suggesting limited inflationary pressures from production costs. On an annual basis, industrial production in the U.S.rose by 1.4% in February. Overall, February’s data was strong, surpassing market expectations and showing solid growth. However, these gains could reverse once the impact of recently implemented tariffs becomes more evident, including the 25% duties on steel and aluminum products. Our research indicates that these tariffs will affect various industries, such as the automotive sector, construction materials, household appliances, and electronic goods.

Markets and Companies

U.S. equity indices are trading lower. In recent weeks, the market has seen declines linked to volatile positions regarding the imposition of tariffs on U.S. imports and concerns about a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Regarding economic data, several key indicators will be released this week, including retail sales, housing figures, and building permits. Additionally, Wednesday’s highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision; the market expects the central bank to keep its benchmark rate unchanged. Meanwhile, equity markets in Europe and Asia were showing a positive trend.

Treasury yields are logging mixed movements, with the 2-year yield at 4.04% and the 10-year yield at 4.31%. The market will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s message this week, as it´s widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged in its next meeting.

Gold continues its upward streak, reaching new record highs above $3,000 per ounce. The metal’s price has been driven by demand for safe-haven assets amidst geopolitical tensions and market volatility related to U.S. tariffs.

In Mexico, IPC futures are trading higher.

The exchange rate stands at 20.06 pesos per dollar, having briefly traded at 19.92 overnight.

Corporate News

• Nvidia is holding its developer conference this week, an event where the company shares its latest advancements and new products. Its stock was down 4%.

• Google announced the acquisition of startup Wiz for $32 billion. The company provides cloud security services.