The Day at a Glance | March 13 2025

The Top

• Industrial production in Mexico started 2025 on a weak note.

• In the Eurozone, industrial production surprised to the upside in January.

• US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that a recession “would be worth it” to implement President Donald Trump’s economic policies, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke of an upcoming “detox” period, and Trump described the economy as in “transition.”

• Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer announced that his party will block the Republican-proposed spending bill to prevent a government shutdown, calling for temporary funding until April 11^th.

• US producer prices remained unchanged in February compared to January 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in the previous period and below expectations of a 0.3% rise.

• In the week ending March 8^th, 2025, initial jobless claims in the US stood at 220,000 (225,000 expected), slightly down from the previous week’s 222,000.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin faces the dilemma of accepting a truce in Ukraine under conditions that could displease Russian nationalists while seeking to maintain the alliance with the U.S.

• Oil prices declined on Thursday following the sharp rebound in the previous session, driven by a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. gasoline inventories, as markets weigh macroeconomic concerns and the balance between demand and supply expectations.

Economic Environment

Industrial production in Mexico started 2025 on a weak note. In January, industrial activity fell by -2.8% y/y, according to seasonally adjusted figures, confirming the slowdown observed in previous months (-2.7% prev.). Among components, mining was the most affected, contracting by -8.6% y/y, followed by construction at -6.4% y/y and manufacturing at -0.9%, while electricity, water, and gas generation and distribution rose by 1.0%. On a monthly basis, industrial production in Mexico declined by -0.4% in the first month of the year after falling -1.4% in December. Within sectors, December logged a broad-based decline, with manufacturing down -0.3% m/m, mining -1.8% m/m, and electricity, water, and gas generation and distribution -0.8% m/m, while construction recorded a slight 0.1% m/m increase. Overall, these figures confirm that Mexico’s economic slowdown is ongoing, with a significant contraction in key sectors. If this trend continues, the industrial outlook for the coming months remains challenging.

In the Eurozone, industrial production surprised to the upside in January. The latest figures logged a 0.8% monthly increase in industrial activity (prev. -0.4%). This positive performance was mainly driven by a 1.6% rise in intermediate goods and a 0.5% increase in capital goods. Meanwhile, non-durable consumer goods declined by -3.1%, energy by -1.2%, and durable consumer goods by -0.2%. On an annual basis, industrial production in the Eurozonestagnated in January (-0.5% e.), with declines in three out of five components. Intermediate goods (-0.8%), energy (-1.6%), and capital goods (-2.7%) all fell compared to January last year, while durable consumer goods rose by 0.9% and non-durable consumer goods by 6.7%. Additionally, the block’s major economies logged annual declines in the first month of 2025, with Germany down -1.8% (prev. -3.1%) and France -1.5% (prev. -1.0%).

Markets and Companies

The main U.S. indices were trading lower this morning as investors digested the latest inflation report. February´s PPI remained unchanged. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s threat of new tariffs continued to trigger uncertainty in markets. In Europe, markets were mostly down after Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on alcoholic products from the European Union in response to the EU’s 50% tariffs on American whiskey. Lastly, in Asia, markets closed in negative territory.

In the commodities market, oil prices were trending lower. Meanwhile, gold was trading at $2,948 per ounce, near its all-time high.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields were moving higher. The 10-year bond stood at 4.35%, while the 2-year bond remained at 4.01%.

In the domestic stock market, the IPC was down at 51,924.9 points. Meanwhile, the exchange rate logged a slight appreciation, standing at 20.15 pesos per dollar, compared to 20.17 in the previous session.

Corporate News

• Intel announced the appointment of Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO. The company faces the challenge of regaining investor confidence after years of declining sales and major investments in its chip manufacturing business, including the construction of a $20 billion factory in Ohio.

• American Eagle warned of a weaker-than-expected start to the year, with moderate demand and adverse weather conditions affecting sales. Despite reporting $1.60 billion in revenue, in line with estimates, the company expects a single-digit decline in first-quarter sales.

• Alimentation Couche-Tard reiterated its interest in acquiring Seven & i Holdings, the parent company of 7-Eleven, with a $47 billion offer, suggesting it could improve the bid if the Japanese company cooperates in the negotiation process.