The Day at a Glance | June 15 2023

*Industrial production and manufacturing in the US fell into negative territory for the first time in 2023. 

*Retail sales in the US unexpectedly rebounded (-0.1% m/m e.) in May and increased 0.3% m/m. Only sales at gas stations and convenience stores reported declines. With this, May´s figures point out that consumer spending remains resilient. 

*As expected, the European Central Bank raised its benchmark rates by ¼ point, setting the main refinancing rate at 4.0%. The increase in inflation forecasts is noteworthy, and the possibility of a further increase in September is still on the table. 

*In line with estimates, China´s industrial production increased 3.5% in May. With this, it linked its thirteenth consecutive month of growth, although it marked a significant slowdown, with the lowest reading in three months, supporting the case for more stimulus. 

*Retail sales in China reported a solid rate of expansion (12.7% y/y). However, the reading set below both analysts´ estimates (13.7% y/y) and the previous 18.4%. 

*The Eurozone´s trade balance logged a 11.7 billion euro deficit in April. Exports decreased -3.6% y/y, while imports receded -11.9% y/y. 

Economic environment

Industrial production in the US logged a monthly -0.2% setback in May. This reading logged a greater setback than expected by analysts, who forecasted a marginal expansion (0.1% m/m) – from the previous 0.5% m/m recorded in April. By industry, mining logged a -0.4% m/m contraction, and utilities saw a -1.8% decline (same as in April); and although manufacturing production remained in positive territory by logging a 0.1% m/m figure, it recorded a noticeable slowdown from April´s 0.9%. With this, annual growth in the US industrial sector set at 0.1%, with manufacturing and services setting in negative territory (-0.3% y/y and -3.8% y/y, respectively), and mining increasing at a 5.0% annual rate.