The Day at a Glance | July 3 2023

The Top

*Results were mixed in the INEGI´s Global Business Confidence Indicator in June. 

*The INEGI´s Manufacturing Orders Indicator recorded marginal progress in June, marking six consecutive months in expansionary territory. 

*The INEGI´s Timely Manufacturing Activity Indicator (IMOAM for its initials in Spanish) suggests that the manufacturing sector may have grown by 2.9% on an annual basis in May, indicating an acceleration from the 1.4% y/y logged in April. 

*The Caixin Manufacturing PMI managed to stay in expansionary territory for a second consecutive month in June, although with marginal growth (50.5 points vs 50.9 logged in May). 

*This morning, the US Manufacturing PMI for June will be released, while in Mexico, the Manufacturing PMI and the IMEF indicators for June will be announced, along with remittance figures for May. 

Economic environment

The Global Business Confidence Indicator recorded a slight monthly decline in June to 54.9 points (-0.8). This negative figure is due to four of the INEGI´s Business Confidence Indicators decreasing in June. The largest drop was logged in the construction sector indicator, which fell -1.6 units compared to the previous month, reaching 52.7, followed by non-financial private services at 55.1 points (-1.5), and lastly, the trading sector, which only dropped -0.1 points to 56.4 units. On the other hand, the indicator for the manufacturing industry remained unchanged at 53.5 points. However, compared to the same month of 2022, all sector indicators logged progress ranging from 0.6 points (trade) to 6.1 units in the non-financial private services sector (the most heavily weighted sector – 46.03), indicating an improvement in business confidence in mid-2023, with the index still close to 5 and a half year highs. 

The INEGI´s Manufacturing Orders Indicator set at 53.8 points in June. This reading represents a 0.22 point increase compared to May and links six consecutive months above the 50-point threshold. Four out of the five components logged improvement – the largest being input inventories, which increased by 0.56 points to 54.0. Additionally, the supplier delivery time index managed to increase 0.28 points compared to the previous month, but remained in contractionary territory for an eighth consecutive month, logging 48.5 points (the only component in contractionary territory). In contrast, the production sub-index dropped -0.56 points, but set at 53.7; it remained in expansionary territory for a sixth consecutive month.