The Day at a Glance | July 29 2024

The Top

• This week will bring monetary policy announcements from central banks of major advanced economies.

• Tomorrow, the timely GDP figure for Q2 2024 will be released, where we estimate that the economy will grow by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter according to seasonally adjusted figures.

• US President Joe Biden will propose Supreme Court reforms on Monday, including term limits and a binding code of conduct for its nine justices, but a deeply divided Congress means the changes have little chance of becoming law.

• Both the government and opposition in Venezuela claim to have won the presidential elections, though official results are being questioned.

• Oil prices remained stable on Monday, as fears of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East following a rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights balanced concerns about demand, setting a floor under last week’s price losses.

Economic Environment

This week will bring monetary policy announcements from central banks of major advanced economies.Throughout the week, the world’s major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England, will announce their monetary policy decisions. We expect the following: On one hand, the Federal Reserve will very likely keep the federal funds rate range unchanged between 5.25 and 5.50 percent in a unanimous decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference regarding the monetary policy decision, and we expect him to provide some signs or messages about rate cuts as early as the upcoming meetings, possibly in September. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan is expected to once again keep the reference rate unchanged between 0 and 0.1%, although various surveys and some Reuters analyses mention the possibility of preparing the ground for rate increases in the coming months, as well as further reductions in its asset purchasing programs. Lastly, the Bank of England will also announce its monetary policy decision, where surveys and futures are tied between cutting and maintaining the rate, considering that a month ago, the decision was divided, with 2 out of 9 members voting for a cut and the rest for maintaining the rate unchanged at 5.25%.

Markets and Companies

The S&P 500 is on the rise. Main US indices are mostly upas Wall Street prepares for a week full of corporate reports. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will release their quarterly reports this week. Another key event will be the Federal Reserve meeting, although the Fed is not expected to cut rates this week. In Europe, indices are up as investors digest US inflation data and await another intense week of earnings and central bank meetings. The Stoxx 600 was up +0.30% at 2:03 p.m. London time; oil and gas stocks rose +1.04%, while travel and leisure stocks fell -1.21%. In Asia, Japanese stocks rebounded and led the region’s gains. Additionally, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates at its July 30^th meeting, according to a Reuters poll. Regarding commodities, crude prices logged slight movements despite an escalation between Israel and Hezbollah. Metals are mostly on the rise, and cryptocurrencies are up. In Mexico, the IPC is up (+0.15%) and stands at 52,898 points.

Over the weekend, the exchange rate fluctuated between a low of 18.41 and a high of 18.56, currently trading at 18.56.

Corporate News

• 3M shares skyrocketed +23% on Friday after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results.

• Dexcom shares plummeted -40.7% after the medical device maker missed second-quarter revenue expectations and offered weak full-year guidance.