The Day at a Glance | Jul 12 2022

The Top

*The worst of the energy crisis is yet to come; ensuring the supply of oil and gas will continue to be a challenge: IEA.

*Industrial production in Mexico increased 0.1% in May (3.3% annual).

*AMLO will meet Biden in the White House today.

*Demand for oil will exceed supply in 1 million daily barrels in 2023: OPEC.

*Moody´s revised PEMEX´s credit rating downwards to B1 with a “Stable” perspective.

*EU gives Croatia green light to adopt the Euro in 2023.

*10% of debt in dollars among emerging economies is in risk of default: Man Group.

*First round of Mexico-United Kingdom Free Trade Agreement negotiations begins.

*COVID-19 cases rise in Shanghai due to the spread of a new sub-variant; fears of new quarantine measures.

Economic environment

Energy supply problems. The executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, assured in an event on Tuesday held in Sidney, Australia, that the energy supply crisis triggered by the invasion of Ukraine could worsen. Scarcity and problems among energy supply chains have caused considerable price increases of fuels and electricity, a phenomenon that could deteriorate even further, according to Birol. In fact, new supply and demand growth forecasts calculated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) suggest that demand for crude oil will increase in 1 million daily barrels more than supply in 2023, which will keep the market tight and could mean that prices will remain high. Even despite production increases among OPEC members, efforts to increase the supply of crude oil have fallen short due to disinvestment problems in the sector in the last few years. In addition to this, there is political instability in some key countries, such as Libya. This suggests that inventory levels at a global level could continue to decrease. This would lead to important challenges to ensure the supply of energy in some regions like Europe or Asia who are net importers of energy.

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