The Day at a Glance | January 26 2021

The Top

· IMF slightly increases its global growth estimates.

· Retail sales in Mexico grew 3.3% during November (-4.7% annual).

· COVID-19 cases at a global level surpass 100 million.

· Biden open to changes in his proposed fiscal package; the objective is for it to be approved by mid-March.

· Janet Yellen confirmed as head of the Treasury Department in the US.

Economic environment

The International Monetary Fund updated its economic forecasts for the global economy this morning. The organization estimates a 5.5% growth in global GDP in 2021, figure 0.3% above its previous forecast, which reflects a reinforced recovery due to the distribution of vaccines towards the end of the year as well as additional stimuli in advanced economies. For 2022, the growth estimate set at 4.2%. However, the contraction seen in 2020 is expected to be much larger than that forecasted in the latest report, which was revised to (-) 3.5% (0.9% deeper). Recovery is expected to be different in every country, in accordance with each one`s access to vaccines, the effectiveness of aid policies, their economic relationship with other countries and structural challenges they faced prior to the pandemic. The most significant upward adjustment was made for the United States (5.1% e. 2021 vs 3.1% prev.); meanwhile, downward adjustments were made for Europe (4.2% e. 2021 vs 5.2% prev.) – especially Italy and Spain – Canada (3.6% e. 2021 vs 5.25% prev.) and the United Kingdom (4.5% e. 2021 vs 5.9% prev.). In the case of Mexico, growth in 2021 was revised upwards to 4.3% and to 2.5% in 2022. The IMF called for international cooperation to facilitate access to vaccines in all countries and proposes the restructuration of debt for emerging countries with low levels of income and indebtedness problems.