The Day at a Glance | January 23 2024

*Trump seeks an important victory in the New Hampshire vote, while Haley tries to stop him.

*Tomorrow, inflation for the 1st half of January will be published. The consensus estimates an increase in the overall index by 0.38%, while at Intercam, we estimate it at 0.34%.

*The Bank of Japan shows its commitment to aggressively achieve its inflation target but remains steadfast for now.

*Oil falls as investors reflect on mixed signs in supply.

*US markets are booming. The Dow made history by surpassing 38,000 points for the first time.

Economic environment

Voters in New Hampshire will decide whether to give Donald Trump an easy path to the Republican presidential nomination or strengthen the attempt of his rival Nikki Haley to beat him on Tuesday in a crucial primary election. The former U.S. president and ex-governor of South Carolina made their final speeches to voters in what has become a two-person race after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis withdrew and endorsed the New York businessman. Polls show Trump with a wide lead over Haley, who needs a victory or a strong second place in New Hampshire to carry her into the next nomination contest in South Carolina, where Trump also dominates in the polls. The former president achieved a record victory in the country’s first contest in Iowa last week.

Markets and companies

Global markets show mixed consent. However, futures for U.S. indices are in positive territory. The Dow Jones reached 38,000 points for the first time in history yesterday, rising over 100 points to close the day at 38,162. The S&P 500 also set another record for the day, consolidating its official bull market streak at +0.74%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.96%. Brian Price, Chief Investment Officer at Commonwealth Financial, commented on the new records reached in U.S. markets, “A bit of volatility at the beginning of the year as investors may be rebalancing their portfolios and looking to take some profits. It seems like we are picking up the trend that was clearly underway in the fourth quarter.” Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is above 4.00%. In Europe, the EuroStoxx showed a decrease of 0.2% in early trading, with most sectors operating in negative territory, led by the health sector with a 1.1% decline. In Asia, markets are mixed, with China up 0.53% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 slightly down -0.08%, after the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged in its first policy meeting of the year, standing at 35,517.6. In Mexico, IPC futures opened higher, reaching 55,625 points (+1.65%). Oil prices fell by -0.9% as the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, and the restart of production at a major oilfield in Libya continue. The price is at $74.12 per barrel. Natural gas prices are down by -2.00%, hovering at technical levels that indicate oversold contracts. However, gas demand in Europe has been moderate this winter. Metal prices experienced a slight increase, with gold at $2,026 per ounce, silver trading at $22.35 per ounce, and copper at $380.60 per pound. Lastly, cryptocurrencies are retracting, with Bitcoin dropping below $40,000 for the first time this year. After yesterday´s trading session, the exchange rate fluctuated between a low of 17.15 and a high of 17.31, currently trading at 17.25.

Corporate news

*United Airlines rose over 6% after reporting strong fourth-quarter results. However, the airline noted that it expects losses in the first quarter due to the grounding of Boeing 737 Max 9 planes, the model involved in the Alaska Airlines emergency earlier this month.

*Coinbase dropped approximately 4% after JPMorgan downgraded the cryptocurrency exchange platform from neutral to underweight.

*Halliburton shares increased by 2% after the energy services company released mixed 4Q23 results.

*Johnson & Johnson reported 4Q23 earnings that slightly exceeded expectations. Its highest sales were in the pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors.

*General Electric fell nearly 7% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance for the first quarter.

*3M reported disappointing guidance for the full year and the first quarter, causing the shares to fall more than 5%.