The Day at a Glance | January 13 2025

The Top

• China´s 2024 trade surplus approached one trillion dollars.

• On Monday, China announced new measures to bolster its currency, including plans to deposit more dollars in Hong Kong to strengthen the Yuan and improve capital flows by allowing companies greater access to overseas borrowing.

• Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, stated that the central bank could further ease monetary policy this year but must strike a balance that avoids triggering a recession or excessively delaying inflation control.

• IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgievapredicts stable global growth and a trend toward disinflation in 2025, though she warned that global uncertainty could keep interest rates elevated longer than anticipated.

• An international travelers’ survey revealed that Mexico generated $19.118 billion in tourism revenue.

• According to Reuters, a final draft agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the Gaza war was presented on Monday. This significant development followed discussions involving Biden and Trump envoys.

• Oil extended its gains for the third consecutive session on Monday, with Brent surpassing $80 per barrel, its highest level in more than four months. The increase was driven by the US expanding sanctions on Russian oil and the expected effects on exports to major buyers, including India and China.

Economic Environment

China´s 2024 trade surplus approached one trillion dollars. December´s exports accelerated, rising 10.7% y/y (6.7% prev.), exceeding consensus expectations of 7.3% y/y. Meanwhile, imports increased by 1.0%, marking the fastest pace since July and outperforming the consensus expectation of a -1.5% decline. From January to December 2024, exports totaled $3,577 billion, while imports reached $2,585 billion. As a result, China’s trade surplus stood at $992 billion for the entire year. Overall, exports to the US and Asia accelerated in December, aligning with the rise in new export orders signaled by the PMI. With this, various regional economists anticipate positive momentum in the exports sector for a few months before the tariffs proposed by the new US administration take effect.

Markets and Companies

US futures are logging mixed figures this morning, after the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq marked two consecutive weeks of declines, driven primarily by losses in tech stocks.

In Europe, markets are down amidst persistent concerns over the global economy and a strengthening US Dollar. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.58% (London time), with mostsectors in negative territory.

Meanwhile, Asian markets declined after Friday’s US employment report dampened investors’ hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

In commodities, oil is rising, with Brent exceeding $80 per barrel, reaching its highest level in over four months. This increase was fueled by expanded US sanctions on Russian oil and anticipated impacts on exports to key buyers such as India and China.

Metals and cryptocurrencies are declining, while in Mexico, IPyC futures are trending upward (1.28%).

Over the weekend, the exchange rate fluctuated between a low of 20.65 and a high of 20.83. It currently stands at 20.75.

Liverpool announced that it expects consolidated revenue growth between 8.4% and 8.8% in 4Q24, driven by successful campaigns. However, the company foresees a reduction in the gross margin, higher operating expenses, and provisions.

Corporate News

• Shares of major tech companies fell due to rising US Treasury yields, with Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir losing about 3% and Broadcom and Micron down roughly 2%.

• Abercrombie’s shares dropped 11% despite raising its 4Q guidance, as holiday expectations are lower than last year, suggesting a slowdown in growth.