The Day at a Glance | February 7 2025

The Top

• In Mexico, headline inflation for January stood at 3.59%.

• In the US, January´s employment figures were weaker than what the consensus expected.

• Bank of Mexico Governor Victoria Rodríguez participated in the Chapultepec Conference, an event hosted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). She noted that another 50-basis-point rate cut is not ruled out for the upcoming March meeting.

• The US Department of Justice issued a memorandum detailing a new strategy ordered by President Donald Trump to dismantle transnational criminal organizations.

• Republican Congressman Mike Johnson announced that a tax and spending package will be unveiled by next week at the latest. This package will reveal whether the tax cuts from President Donald Trump’s first term will be extended.

• Oil prices edged higher on Friday following new sanctions on Iran’s crude exports. However, on a weekly basis, they are expected to decline for the third consecutive week.

Economic Environment

In Mexico, headline inflation for January stood at 3.59%.INEGI reported that the National Consumer Price Index recorded a 0.29% m/m increase in January, below both the market consensus and our estimate of 0.33% m/m. On an annual basis, headline inflation reached 3.59%. Meanwhile, core inflation—which excludes the most volatile components such as energy, agricultural products, and government-regulated prices—rose 0.41% m/m, nearly in line with the consensus estimate and our forecast of 0.44% m/m. Annual core inflation stood at 3.66%. By component, goods recorded an annual inflation rate of 2.74%, while services stood at 4.69%. As for the more volatile components, non-core inflation reached 3.34% y/y in January 2025. Inflation data for the month showed a significant slowdown, mainly due to an unexpected drop in the fruits and vegetables component, as well as reduced pressure in services. These figures reinforce expectations of another 50-basis-point rate cut in the funding rate.

In the US, January´s employment figures were weaker than what the consensus expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000 in January 2025, below the consensus forecast of 170,000. Additionally, employment gains for November and December of last year were revised up by a total of 100,000 jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate stood at 4.0% in January, below both market expectations and December’s 4.1%. Wage growth in January was 3.8% y/y, down from the 4.1% y/y recorded at the end of 2024. Overall, the employment data suggests weakness, as job creation was low, though it may have been affected by wildfires in California and severe winter conditions across much of the country. Nonetheless, these figures do not seem to alter expectations of a pause in the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle for its upcoming meeting.

Markets and Companies

US stock futures were trading slightly higher this morning as investors assessed the latest jobs report, which showed nonfarm payrolls at 143,000—below estimates—while the unemployment rate fell to 4%. Amazon was down more than 2% after issuing weak guidance for the first quarter, overshadowing its strong quarterly results. In Europe, markets saw slight declines after hitting record highs on Thursday. In Asia, markets closed mixed, with losses in Japan and South Korea, while Hong Kong and China posted gains.

In commodities, oil prices were rising after the US imposed new sanctions on Iranian crude exporters. Meanwhile, gold remained on an upward trend, trading at $2,866 per ounce.

In fixed income, the 10-year US Treasury yield held at 4.47%, while the 2-year yield stood at 4.25%.

In Mexico, IPC futures are up at 52,965 points, while the exchange rate stands at 20.54 pesos per dollar, compared to 20.44 yesterday at market close. 

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte released its January passenger report, showing a 7.3% y/y increase in domestic passengers and a 24% y/y rise in international passengers, resulting in a consolidated growth of 9.9% y/y.

Asur reported total passenger traffic of 6.4 million in January (+1.7% y/y), with Colombia and Puerto Rico logging increases of 12.3% and 9.3%, respectively. In contrast, Mexico’s traffic declined by 4.1% y/y, driven by a 6.5% y/y drop in the international segment.

Volaris increased its capacity, measured in ASMs, by 4.7% y/y in January, while RPMs rose 2.9% y/y. However, the load factor fell by 1.5 percentage points. For 2025, the airline plans to increase capacity by 13%-15%, recovering to 2023 levels.

Corporate News

• Amazon beat expectations with revenue of $187.79 billion and earnings per share of $1.86 but projected weaker-than-expected sales due to currency impacts. AWS grew 19%, while advertising revenue rose 18%.

• Pinterest exceeded estimates with revenue of $1.15 billion (+18% y/y) and 553 million users (+11% y/y). Adjusted EBITDA came in at $470.9 million. The company also forecasted first-quarter revenue between $837 million and $852 million, surpassing expectations.