The Day at a Glance | February 4 2022

The Top

*Employment data in the United States surprised to the upside (467k vs 125k e.).

*Russia and China confirmed their political and strategic alliance in a joint statement; they condemn U.S. pressures regarding Ukraine and Taiwan.

*Fixed investment in Mexico grew 0.1% monthly in November (4.3% annual); private consumption increased 0.7% monthly (6.1% annual).

*NFIB survey revealed that 50% of small businesses in the United States increased wages in January in order to attract workers (the highest percentage since 1986).

Economic environment

Solid recovery in U.S. employment. The most recent figures made public by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed a greater than expected increase in employment. 467 thousand new jobs were created during January while estimates forecasted 125 thousand; some even believed that the number was going to be negative due to the Omicron variant`s impact during the month. It`s possible that the methodology used to seasonally adjust the figures is behind the surprising number. In light of these methodological changes (which usually occur every year), December`s data was revised upwards considerably – from 199k to 510k. The unemployment rate, however, increased to 4% and the participation rate increased to 62.2% (vs 61.9% prev.). After the adjustments, the number of unemployed people set at only 2 million above February 2020`s (pre-pandemic) levels. The data reinforces the idea of a tight labor market despite great volatility in figures and issues concerning calculations caused by the pandemic. Wages also increased more than expected and logged a 5.7% annual hike (vs 5.2% e.) after increasing 0.7% during the month. This is the largest increase in wages since May of 2020, when the loss of jobs due to low wages during the pandemic caused an important increase in the indicator.