The Day at a Glance | February 25 2025

The Top

• Mexico reported mixed employment figures for the last quarter of 2024.

• On Monday, President Donald Trump stated that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico remain “on schedule and as planned,” despite both countries’ efforts to strengthen border security and curb fentanyl flows into the US ahead of the March 4^th deadline.

• According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration plans to tighten export controls on semiconductors to China, extending and even toughening the restrictions implemented under Joe Biden’s presidency.

• On Tuesday, Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan suggested the possibility of allocating a “modest” portion of the Fed’s balance sheet to loans and repurchase agreements, potentially including a daily loan auction through the discount window.

• The ECB has room to cut interest rates further if inflation moderates to its 2% target this year, as expected, stated monetary policy official Joachim Nagel on Tuesday, calling the inflation outlook “encouraging.”

• President Donald Trump and his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, showed stark differences regarding Ukraine on Monday, highlighting a divide between the US and Europe regarding Trump’s push for a swift ceasefire with Russia.

• Oil prices remained stable on Tuesday after rising in the previous session, when new US sanctions on Iran fueled concerns over a potential supply squeeze, while global refining margins remain strong.

Economic Environment

Mexico reported mixed employment figures for the last quarter of 2024. According to data from the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE for its acronym in Spanish), in 4Q24, the economically active population (EAP) stood at 61.1 million people, of whom 59.5 million were employed and 1.6 million were actively seeking work, meaning they were unemployed. Among those employed, 32.4 million worked under some form of informal employment, such as self-employment in the agricultural sector or jobs without social security. This meant that 54.5% of the employed population was in the informal sector. By economic sector, primary activities lost about 197,000 jobs between the last quarter of 2023 and 2024, while secondary activities logged a reduction of 242,000 jobs, including 121,000 in manufacturing and 118,000 in construction. Meanwhile, the tertiary sector created 473,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stood at 2.6% of the EAP in 4Q24, down from 2.7% in 4Q23 and 3.0% in 3Q24. ENOE figures point to a mixed outlook, with job creation primarily concentrated in the services sector and a low unemployment rate. However, the secondary sector remains weak, as a significant number of jobs have been cut.

Markets and Companies

US futures are trading with marginal gains after the S&P 500 posted declines in the last three sessions. The market continues to digest the possibility of tariffs in the US after Donald Trump stated that the plan to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada remains in place. On the economic front, today’s focus is on the US consumer confidence index, while investors are awaiting Friday’s release of January’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s most closely watched indicator. In corporate news, attention is on Nvidia’s earnings report, which will be published tomorrow after market close. In Europe, equity markets were trading higher, while in Asia, negative figures were logged.

In the debt market, US Treasury yields are retreating to their lowest levels since December. The 2-year bond is trading at 4.12%, while the 10-year bond stands at 4.33%.

In Mexico, IPC futures are trading higher. The Mexican peso is trading at 20.46 per US dollar after closing at 20.47 yesterday.

ASUR’s total revenue in 4Q24 increased by 31.2%, while EBITDA rose 22.5%. Aeronautical revenue grew 25% due to higher maximum tariffs that came into effect this year, and non-aeronautical revenue increased 9.0%. Total revenue (excluding construction services) was 19% higher than in 2023. The adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 69.7%, up 220 basis points.

In 4Q24, OMA’s aeronautical service revenue rose 11.1%, while non-aeronautical revenue grew 21.7%, with nearly all segments posting double-digit increases. Combined aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue rose 13.6%, while construction service revenue increased 1.4%. Adjusted EBITDA was up 7.9%, with the adjusted margin reaching 77.7%.

GAP reported positive 4Q24 results, with better-than-expected revenue and earnings. Revenue increased 5.4%, while EBITDA grew 14.9%. Total passenger traffic rose 1.4%, with domestic passengers down 0.2% and international passengers up 3.5%. Aeronautical service revenue increased 10.5%, supported by the slight rise in passenger numbers and partially by the depreciation of the peso, while non-aeronautical service revenue rose 32.7%.

Kof announced that its Board of Directors proposed an ordinary dividend of $7.36 pesos per KOF UBL unit ($0.92 per share), to be paid in four equal installments of $1.84 per KOF UBL unit ($0.23 per share) in April, July, October, and December 2025. The total proposed dividend amounts to $15.462 billion pesos. 

Alsea will report its 4Q24 results this afternoon. We expect Alsea’s revenue to rise by low double digits, driven by strong performance in Mexico and favorable exchange rate effects. However, the EBITDA margin is expected to contract.

Corporate News

• Home Depot reported better-than-expected quarterly results and expects a 2.8% increase in sales this year, along with a 2% decline in earnings per share. The stock reacted positively to the report.